Aris
vs
Anorthosis
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Aris 1–0 Anorthosis
The model makes it 55% Aris, 26% draw, 19% Anorthosis — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Aris 1.82, Anorthosis 0.88.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Aris: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Aris are 6th on 8 points from 5 games; Anorthosis are 13th on 3 points from 5 games — 1. Division.
- Aris are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Olympiakos.
- Anorthosis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Pafos.
- Last 6 meetings: Aris 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 February 2026, ended Aris 0–1 Anorthosis.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aris vs Anorthosis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aris at 55% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aris vs Anorthosis
Aris
- W2-1away to Olympiakos11 October 2026
- D0-0Karmiotissa20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Krasava Ypsonas14 September 2026
- L1-4Omonia Nicosia7 September 2026
- D2-2Apollon Limassol29 August 2026
Anorthosis
- L1-3Pafos11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Nea Salamis19 September 2026
- W2-1Apoel Nicosia12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Apollon Limassol5 September 2026
- L0-2away to AEL30 August 2026
What these results say
- Aris scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Anorthosis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Anorthosis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Anorthosis had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Anorthosis | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aris vs Anorthosis
- 9 February 2026Aris 0–1 Anorthosis1. Division
- 26 October 2025Anorthosis 1–1 Aris1. Division
- 15 February 2025Anorthosis 0–3 Aris1. Division
- 9 November 2024Aris 3–0 Anorthosis1. Division
- 11 May 2024Anorthosis 0–4 Aris1. Division
- 31 March 2024Aris 1–1 Anorthosis1. Division
The two sides
Aris carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.37 for Anorthosis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Aris and 0.88 for Anorthosis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aris rate 0.76 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Anorthosis rate 0.56 and 1.47.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aris the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Aris against 0.88 for Anorthosis. Aris's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.47 for Anorthosis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aris at home · Anorthosis away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Aris 5, Anorthosis 5.
Anorthosis score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Aris have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Aris
- at Apoel Nicosia8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 27%
- vs Nea Salamis21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 55%
- at Pafos29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 22%
Anorthosis
- vs Omonia Nicosia8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 14%
- at Krasava Ypsonas23 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- vs Karmiotissa28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.