Puskas Academy
vs
MTK Budapest
NB I prediction
Our model says: Puskas Academy 2–1 MTK Budapest
The model makes it 53% Puskas Academy, 24% draw, 23% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Puskas Academy 2.01, MTK Budapest 1.15.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Puskas Academy: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Puskas Academy's rating is built from 46 Hungarian NB I matches and MTK Budapest's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 473 matches.
Key facts
- Puskas Academy are top on 24 points from 13 games; MTK Budapest are 10th on 13 points from 13 games — NB I.
- Puskas Academy have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Kisvarda FC.
- MTK Budapest are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Budapest Honved.
- Last 6 meetings: Puskas Academy 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 7 August 2026, ended MTK Budapest 2–3 Puskas Academy.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Puskas Academy vs MTK Budapest
Has the model earned this number?
Puskas Academy at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Puskas Academy vs MTK Budapest
Puskas Academy
NB I
- W1-0away to Kisvarda FC7 November 2026
- L1-3Debreceni VSC1 November 2026
- L1-2Nyiregyhaza25 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ujpest17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gyori ETO FC11 October 2026
MTK Budapest
NB I
- D2-2Budapest Honved7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Zalaegerszegi TE31 October 2026
- L0-5away to Ferencvarosi TC25 October 2026
- W1-0Vasas16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Paks10 October 2026
What these results say
- Puskas Academy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for MTK Budapest had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 | MTK Budapest | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Puskas Academy
Chance to finish in the top three · 35% today
MTK Budapest
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 56% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Puskas Academy vs MTK Budapest
- 7 August 2026MTK Budapest 2–3 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 15 May 2026Puskas Academy 2–2 MTK BudapestNB I
- 14 February 2026MTK Budapest 2–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 25 October 2025Puskas Academy 1–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 6 April 2025Puskas Academy 1–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 30 November 2024MTK Budapest 0–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
Leading scorers: Puskas Academy and MTK Budapest
Puskas Academy
GoalsAssists
- A. Németh52
- P. Dárdai32
MTK Budapest
GoalsAssists
- G. Jurek71
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Puskas Academy a 4.3% chance of the title and MTK Budapest 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puskas Academy the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Puskas Academy against 1.15 for MTK Budapest. Puskas Academy's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.95 for MTK Budapest.
How the model reaches 53% for Puskas Academy to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Puskas Academy to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Puskas Academy's ratings add 4 points and MTK Budapest's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Puskas Academy's ratings46%+4
- MTK Budapest's ratings53%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Puskas Academy at home · MTK Budapest away
League matches only, NB I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Puskas AcademyMTK Budapest
Puskas Academy are 1st after 13 NB I matches (between 1st and 5th so far); MTK Budapest are 10th after 13 (between 1st and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Puskas Academy 13, MTK Budapest 13.
Puskas Academy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); MTK Budapest have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Puskas Academy
- at Paks29 Nov · NB Iwin 30%
- vs Vasas6 Dec · NB Iwin 42%
- at Ferencvarosi TC14 Dec · NB Iwin 19%
- vs Zalaegerszegi TE20 Dec · NB Iwin 45%
- at Budapest Honved30 Jan · NB Iwin 37%
MTK Budapest
- vs Ujpest28 Nov · NB Iwin 35%
- at Nyiregyhaza5 Dec · NB Iwin 31%
- vs Debreceni VSC13 Dec · NB Iwin 27%
- at Kisvarda FC20 Dec · NB Iwin 29%
- at Gyori ETO FC30 Jan · NB Iwin 17%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.