Ujpest
vs
Kisvarda FC
NB I prediction
Our model says: Ujpest 1–0 Kisvarda FC
The model makes it 44% Ujpest, 28% draw, 28% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ujpest 1.48, Kisvarda FC 1.06.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Ujpest's rating is built from 46 Hungarian NB I matches and Kisvarda FC's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 473 matches.
Key facts
- Ujpest are 6th on 18 points from 13 games; Kisvarda FC are 11th on 12 points from 13 games — NB I.
- Ujpest have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Debreceni VSC.
- Kisvarda FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Puskas Academy.
- Last 6 meetings: Kisvarda FC 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Kisvarda FC 2–4 Ujpest.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ujpest vs Kisvarda FC
Has the model earned this number?
Ujpest at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ujpest vs Kisvarda FC
Ujpest
NB I
- L1-3away to Debreceni VSC8 November 2026
- W2-1Nyiregyhaza1 November 2026
- L0-1away to Gyori ETO FC24 October 2026
- L0-1Puskas Academy17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Budapest Honved11 October 2026
Kisvarda FC
NB I
- L0-1Puskas Academy7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Budapest Honved31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Zalaegerszegi TE24 October 2026
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vasas10 October 2026
What these results say
- Ujpest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ujpest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kisvarda FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Kisvarda FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ujpest | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 18 |
| 11 | Kisvarda FC | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ujpest
Chance to finish in the top three · 8% today
Kisvarda FC
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 33% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Ujpest vs Kisvarda FC
- 8 August 2026Kisvarda FC 2–4 UjpestNB I
- 14 March 2026Ujpest 2–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 30 November 2025Kisvarda FC 3–0 UjpestNB I
- 15 August 2025Ujpest 0–1 Kisvarda FCNB I
- 13 April 2024Kisvarda FC 4–1 UjpestNB I
- 16 December 2023Kisvarda FC 4–0 UjpestNB I
Leading scorers: Ujpest and Kisvarda FC
Ujpest
GoalsAssists
- A. Matko63
- E. Amenyido45
- G. Vlijter32
Kisvarda FC
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ujpest a 0.4% chance of the title and Kisvarda FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ujpest the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ujpest against 1.06 for Kisvarda FC. Ujpest's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.31 for Kisvarda FC.
How the model reaches 44% for Ujpest to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ujpest to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Ujpest's ratings add 3 points and Kisvarda FC's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Ujpest's ratings43%+3
- Kisvarda FC's ratings44%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Ujpest at home · Kisvarda FC away
League matches only, NB I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
UjpestKisvarda FC
Ujpest are 6th after 13 NB I matches (between 1st and 12th so far); Kisvarda FC are 11th after 13 (between 1st and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Ujpest 13, Kisvarda FC 13.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ujpest
- at MTK Budapest28 Nov · NB Iwin 40%
- vs Paks5 Dec · NB Iwin 36%
- at Vasas12 Dec · NB Iwin 31%
- vs Ferencvarosi TC19 Dec · NB Iwin 23%
- at Zalaegerszegi TE30 Jan · NB Iwin 33%
Kisvarda FC
- vs Nyiregyhaza28 Nov · NB Iwin 40%
- at Debreceni VSC5 Dec · NB Iwin 21%
- at Gyori ETO FC12 Dec · NB Iwin 19%
- vs MTK Budapest20 Dec · NB Iwin 43%
- at Paks30 Jan · NB Iwin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.