Vasas
vs
Budapest Honved
NB I prediction
Our model says: Vasas 2–1 Budapest Honved
The model makes it 46% Vasas, 26% draw, 28% Budapest Honved — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Vasas 1.77, Budapest Honved 1.27.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Vasas's rating is built from 13 Hungarian NB I matches and Budapest Honved's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 473 matches.
Key facts
- Vasas are 7th on 16 points from 13 games; Budapest Honved are 8th on 14 points from 12 games — NB I.
- Vasas have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Ferencvarosi TC.
- Budapest Honved have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to MTK Budapest.
- Last 6 meetings: Budapest Honved 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 August 2026, ended Budapest Honved 1–2 Vasas.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vasas vs Budapest Honved
Has the model earned this number?
Vasas at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vasas vs Budapest Honved
Vasas
NB I
- L0-2Ferencvarosi TC8 November 2026
- D2-2away to Gyori ETO FC31 October 2026
- L0-2Paks25 October 2026
- L0-1away to MTK Budapest16 October 2026
- D1-1Kisvarda FC10 October 2026
Budapest Honved
NB I
- D2-2away to MTK Budapest7 November 2026
- W1-0Kisvarda FC31 October 2026
- L0-2Debreceni VSC24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nyiregyhaza17 October 2026
- D1-1Ujpest11 October 2026
What these results say
- Vasas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vasas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vasas had two goals or fewer.
- Budapest Honved scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Budapest Honved had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Vasas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 16 |
| 8 | Budapest Honved | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vasas
Chance to finish in the top three · 10% today
Budapest Honved
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 24% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Vasas vs Budapest Honved
- 14 August 2026Budapest Honved 1–2 VasasNB I
- 10 May 2026Budapest Honved 3–1 VasasNB II
- 24 November 2025Vasas 1–2 Budapest HonvedNB II
- 25 May 2025Vasas 2–2 Budapest HonvedNB II
- 30 November 2024Budapest Honved 1–0 VasasNB II
- 6 May 2024Budapest Honved 0–3 VasasNB II
Leading scorers: Vasas and Budapest Honved
Vasas
GoalsAssists
- J. Urblík33
Budapest Honved
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vasas a 0.6% chance of the title and Budapest Honved 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasas the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Vasas against 1.27 for Budapest Honved. Vasas's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.57 for Budapest Honved.
How the model reaches 46% for Vasas to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Vasas to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Vasas's ratings add 3 points and Budapest Honved's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Vasas's ratings44%+3
- Budapest Honved's ratings46%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Vasas at home · Budapest Honved away
League matches only, NB I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
VasasBudapest Honved
Vasas are 7th after 13 NB I matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Budapest Honved are 8th after 12 (between 2nd and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Vasas 13, Budapest Honved 12.
Vasas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Budapest Honved have let in 6 there.
Budapest Honved score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Vasas have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vasas
- at Puskas Academy6 Dec · NB Iwin 30%
- vs Ujpest12 Dec · NB Iwin 44%
- at Nyiregyhaza19 Dec · NB Iwin 40%
- vs Debreceni VSC30 Jan · NB Iwin 35%
Budapest Honved
- at Ferencvarosi TC3 Dec · NB Iwin 15%
- vs Ferencvarosi TC6 Dec · NB Iwin 21%
- at Zalaegerszegi TE13 Dec · NB Iwin 31%
- vs Gyori ETO FC20 Dec · NB Iwin 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.