Pafos
vs
Omonia 29is Maiou
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Pafos 2–0 Omonia 29is Maiou
The model makes it 56% Pafos, 25% draw, 19% Omonia 29is Maiou — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Pafos 1.94, Omonia 29is Maiou 0.93.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,587 settled matches.
Edge to Pafos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Pafos's rating is built from 42 Cypriot First Division matches and Omonia 29is Maiou's from 6, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Pafos are 5th on 11 points from 6 games; Omonia 29is Maiou are 8th on 8 points from 6 games — 1. Division.
- Pafos have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Apoel Nicosia.
- Omonia 29is Maiou have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Anorthosis.
- Last 3 meetings: Pafos 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 February 2025, ended Pafos 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pafos vs Omonia 29is Maiou
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pafos at 56% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pafos vs Omonia 29is Maiou
Pafos
1. Division
- D0-0Apoel Nicosia19 October 2026
- W3-1away to Anorthosis11 October 2026
- L0-2AEL18 September 2026
- W1-0away to AEK Larnaca13 September 2026
- D0-0Olympiakos7 September 2026
Omonia 29is Maiou
1. Division
- W1-0Anorthosis18 October 2026
- L1-2away to AEL11 October 2026
- L1-2AEK Larnaca18 September 2026
- D3-3away to Olympiakos13 September 2026
- D2-2Karmiotissa4 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Pafos had two goals or fewer.
- Omonia 29is Maiou scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Omonia 29is Maiou failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Omonia 29is Maiou conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pafos vs Omonia 29is Maiou
- 3 February 2025Pafos 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou1. Division
- 28 October 2024Omonia 29is Maiou 1–2 Pafos1. Division
- 22 September 2021Omonia 29is Maiou 0–1 PafosCup
The two sides
Pafos carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.54 for Omonia 29is Maiou. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Pafos and 0.93 for Omonia 29is Maiou. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pafos rate 0.80 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia 29is Maiou rate 0.79 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pafos a 5% chance of the title and Omonia 29is Maiou 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,338 correct results out of 4,879 settled predictions (48%), with 481 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pafos the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Pafos against 0.93 for Omonia 29is Maiou. Pafos's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.49 for Omonia 29is Maiou.
How the model reaches 56% for Pafos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pafos to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Pafos's ratings take away 6 points and Omonia 29is Maiou's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Pafos's ratings38%−6
- Omonia 29is Maiou's ratings56%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pafos at home · Omonia 29is Maiou away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Pafos 6, Omonia 29is Maiou 6.
Pafos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Omonia 29is Maiou have let in 2 there.
Omonia 29is Maiou score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Pafos have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Pafos
- at Omonia Aradippou21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 44%
- vs FC Midtjylland26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 37%
Omonia 29is Maiou
- at Apollon Limassol22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 21%
- vs Omonia Aradippou27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 51%
- at Aris3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.