Anorthosis
vs
Omonia Nicosia
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Anorthosis 0–2 Omonia Nicosia
The model makes it 16% Anorthosis, 24% draw, 60% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 6.25, 4.17 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: Anorthosis 0.75, Omonia Nicosia 1.96.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Omonia Nicosia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Anorthosis's rating is built from 40 Cypriot First Division matches and Omonia Nicosia's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Anorthosis are 9th on 6 points from 7 games; Omonia Nicosia are 3rd on 12 points from 6 games — 1. Division.
- Anorthosis have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Omonia Aradippou.
- Omonia Nicosia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Olympiakos.
- Last 6 meetings: Omonia Nicosia 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Omonia Nicosia 2–0 Anorthosis.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Anorthosis vs Omonia Nicosia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia Nicosia at 60% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Anorthosis vs Omonia Nicosia
Anorthosis
1. Division
- W2-0Omonia Aradippou24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Omonia 29is Maiou18 October 2026
- L1-3Pafos11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Nea Salamis19 September 2026
- W2-1Apoel Nicosia12 September 2026
Omonia Nicosia
1. Division
- D2-2Olympiakos19 October 2026
- W3-0away to Karmiotissa9 October 2026
- W4-1Krasava Ypsonas20 September 2026
- D0-0Apollon Limassol12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Aris7 September 2026
What these results say
- Anorthosis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Omonia Nicosia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Omonia Nicosia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Omonia Nicosia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Anorthosis vs Omonia Nicosia
- 18 January 2026Omonia Nicosia 2–0 Anorthosis1. Division
- 28 September 2025Anorthosis 0–5 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 7 January 2025Omonia Nicosia 0–2 Anorthosis1. Division
- 21 September 2024Anorthosis 1–0 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 14 April 2024Anorthosis 0–2 Omonia Nicosia1. Division
- 4 March 2024Omonia Nicosia 2–1 Anorthosis1. Division
A clear gap in the ratings
Anorthosis carry a model rating of 6.41 against 7.03 for Omonia Nicosia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.75 goals for Anorthosis and 1.96 for Omonia Nicosia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Anorthosis rate 0.57 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia Nicosia rate 1.17 and 0.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Anorthosis a 0% chance of the title and Omonia Nicosia 58%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Anorthosis against 1.96 for Omonia Nicosia. Anorthosis's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.81 for Omonia Nicosia.
How the model reaches 60% for Omonia Nicosia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Omonia Nicosia to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Anorthosis's ratings add 22 points and Omonia Nicosia's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Anorthosis's ratings51%+22
- Omonia Nicosia's ratings60%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Anorthosis at home · Omonia Nicosia away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Anorthosis 7, Omonia Nicosia 6.
Omonia Nicosia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Anorthosis have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Anorthosis
- at Krasava Ypsonas23 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 31%
- vs Karmiotissa28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- at Olympiakos2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 22%
- vs AEK Larnaca7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 22%
Omonia Nicosia
- vs Apoel Nicosia21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 67%
- at Juventus26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.