Olympiakos
vs
Apollon Limassol
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Olympiakos 2–1 Apollon Limassol
The model makes it 38% Olympiakos, 26% draw, 36% Apollon Limassol — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Olympiakos 1.58, Apollon Limassol 1.51.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
A tight game: Olympiakos and Apollon Limassol are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Olympiakos's rating is built from 39 Cypriot First Division matches and Apollon Limassol's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Olympiakos are 10th on 5 points from 6 games; Apollon Limassol are 4th on 12 points from 6 games — 1. Division.
- Olympiakos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Omonia Nicosia.
- Apollon Limassol are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-2 win at home to Nea Salamis.
- Last 6 meetings: Apollon Limassol 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Apollon Limassol 3–1 Olympiakos.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol
Olympiakos
1. Division
- D2-2away to Omonia Nicosia19 October 2026
- L1-2Aris11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Omonia Aradippou20 September 2026
- D3-3Omonia 29is Maiou13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Pafos7 September 2026
Apollon Limassol
1. Division
- W4-2Nea Salamis17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Krasava Ypsonas10 October 2026
- D2-2Apoel Nicosia19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Omonia Nicosia12 September 2026
- W3-1Anorthosis5 September 2026
What these results say
- Olympiakos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olympiakos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Apollon Limassol went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Apollon Limassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Apollon Limassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Olympiakos | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 | Apollon Limassol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol
- 8 February 2026Apollon Limassol 3–1 Olympiakos1. Division
- 25 October 2025Olympiakos 2–2 Apollon Limassol1. Division
- 6 August 2025Apollon Limassol 3–2 OlympiakosFriendlies Clubs
- 27 January 2023Apollon Limassol 2–1 Olympiakos1. Division
- 21 October 2022Olympiakos 1–1 Apollon Limassol1. Division
- 30 January 2022Apollon Limassol 2–1 Olympiakos1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olympiakos carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.71 for Apollon Limassol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Olympiakos and 1.51 for Apollon Limassol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olympiakos rate 0.79 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Apollon Limassol rate 0.92 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Apollon Limassol, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olympiakos a 0.2% chance of the title and Apollon Limassol 5.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Olympiakos against 1.51 for Apollon Limassol. Olympiakos's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.23 for Apollon Limassol.
How the model reaches 38% for Olympiakos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olympiakos to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Olympiakos's ratings take away 14 points and Apollon Limassol's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Olympiakos's ratings30%−14
- Apollon Limassol's ratings38%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olympiakos at home · Apollon Limassol away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Olympiakos 6, Apollon Limassol 6.
Olympiakos score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Apollon Limassol have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Olympiakos
- vs AEK Larnaca22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- at AEL27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- vs Anorthosis2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 55%
Apollon Limassol
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 56%
- at AEK Larnaca27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 22%
- vs Omonia Aradippou2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.