AEL
vs
Krasava Ypsonas
1. Division prediction
Our model says: AEL 2–0 Krasava Ypsonas
The model makes it 55% AEL, 25% draw, 20% Krasava Ypsonas — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: AEL 1.93, Krasava Ypsonas 0.97.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
Edge to AEL: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. AEL's rating is built from 39 Cypriot First Division matches and Krasava Ypsonas's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- AEL are top on 15 points from 6 games; Krasava Ypsonas are 12th on 3 points from 6 games — 1. Division.
- AEL are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Omonia Aradippou.
- Krasava Ypsonas have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Karmiotissa.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Krasava Ypsonas 1–1 AEL.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEL at 55% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas
AEL
1. Division
- W2-0away to Omonia Aradippou18 October 2026
- W2-1Omonia 29is Maiou11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Pafos18 September 2026
- W2-1Nea Salamis11 September 2026
- L0-6away to Apoel Nicosia6 September 2026
Krasava Ypsonas
1. Division
- W2-1Karmiotissa17 October 2026
- L1-3Apollon Limassol10 October 2026
- L1-4away to Omonia Nicosia20 September 2026
- L0-1Aris14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Omonia Aradippou5 September 2026
What these results say
- AEL won 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEL scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Krasava Ypsonas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Krasava Ypsonas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Krasava Ypsonas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 15 |
| 12 | Krasava Ypsonas | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas
- 2 May 2026Krasava Ypsonas 1–1 AEL1. Division
- 9 February 2026Krasava Ypsonas 3–0 AEL1. Division
- 26 October 2025AEL 1–0 Krasava Ypsonas1. Division
The two sides
AEL carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.32 for Krasava Ypsonas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for AEL and 0.97 for Krasava Ypsonas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEL rate 0.71 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Krasava Ypsonas rate 0.58 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AEL a 1.4% chance of the title and Krasava Ypsonas 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEL the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for AEL against 0.97 for Krasava Ypsonas. AEL's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.67 for Krasava Ypsonas.
How the model reaches 55% for AEL to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AEL to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, AEL's ratings take away 17 points and Krasava Ypsonas's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- AEL's ratings27%−17
- Krasava Ypsonas's ratings55%+28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AEL at home · Krasava Ypsonas away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: AEL 6, Krasava Ypsonas 6.
AEL score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Krasava Ypsonas have let in 3 there.
Krasava Ypsonas score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); AEL have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
AEL
- at Karmiotissa22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 39%
- vs Olympiakos27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 41%
- at AEK Larnaca1 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 15%
Krasava Ypsonas
- vs Anorthosis23 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 41%
- at Apoel Nicosia28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 16%
- vs Nea Salamis3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.