Ben Aknoun
vs
CR Belouizdad
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Ben Aknoun 1–2 CR Belouizdad
The model makes it 33% Ben Aknoun, 25% draw, 42% CR Belouizdad — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ben Aknoun 1.53, CR Belouizdad 1.78.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,265 settled matches.
Edge to CR Belouizdad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Ben Aknoun's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and CR Belouizdad's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Ben Aknoun are 10th on 7 points from 6 games; CR Belouizdad are 2nd on 14 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Ben Aknoun have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to JS Saoura.
- CR Belouizdad are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to USM Alger.
- Last 4 meetings: CR Belouizdad 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended CR Belouizdad 3–1 Ben Aknoun.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ben Aknoun vs CR Belouizdad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CR Belouizdad at 42% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ben Aknoun vs CR Belouizdad
Ben Aknoun
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to JS Saoura24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Olympique Akbou16 October 2026
- D2-2JS El Biar7 October 2026
- D1-1away to Khenchela18 September 2026
- D2-2US Biskra10 September 2026
CR Belouizdad
Ligue 1
- D2-2away to USM Alger24 October 2026
- W3-2away to JS El Biar12 October 2026
- W1-0Khenchela7 October 2026
- W1-0away to US Biskra17 September 2026
- W1-0ES Setif11 September 2026
What these results say
- Ben Aknoun did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ben Aknoun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ben Aknoun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CR Belouizdad went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CR Belouizdad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CR Belouizdad won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ben Aknoun | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ben Aknoun vs CR Belouizdad
- 24 May 2026CR Belouizdad 3–1 Ben AknounLigue 1
- 3 January 2026Ben Aknoun 0–2 CR BelouizdadLigue 1
- 11 May 2024CR Belouizdad 1–0 Ben AknounLigue 1
- 15 December 2023Ben Aknoun 1–1 CR BelouizdadLigue 1
The two sides
Ben Aknoun carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.51 for CR Belouizdad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Ben Aknoun and 1.78 for CR Belouizdad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ben Aknoun rate 0.62 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CR Belouizdad rate 0.76 and 1.52.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ben Aknoun a 0.9% chance of the title and CR Belouizdad 32.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,338 correct results out of 4,879 settled predictions (48%), with 481 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CR Belouizdad the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ben Aknoun against 1.78 for CR Belouizdad. Ben Aknoun's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.52 for CR Belouizdad.
How the model reaches 42% for CR Belouizdad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CR Belouizdad to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Ben Aknoun's ratings add 32 points and CR Belouizdad's ratings take away 19 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Ben Aknoun's ratings61%+32
- CR Belouizdad's ratings42%−19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ben Aknoun at home · CR Belouizdad away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Ben Aknoun 6, CR Belouizdad 6.
Ben Aknoun score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); CR Belouizdad have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Ben Aknoun
- at JS Kabylie21 Nov · Ligue 1win 21%
CR Belouizdad
- at MC Oran21 Nov · Ligue 1win 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.