Apoel Nicosia
vs
Aris
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Aris
The model makes it 46% Apoel Nicosia, 27% draw, 27% Aris — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Apoel Nicosia 1.68, Aris 1.17.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Apoel Nicosia's rating is built from 42 Cypriot First Division matches and Aris's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Apoel Nicosia are 7th on 8 points from 6 games; Aris are 6th on 9 points from 6 games — 1. Division.
- Apoel Nicosia are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Pafos.
- Aris are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to AEK Larnaca.
- Last 6 meetings: Apoel Nicosia 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 May 2026, ended Aris 1–0 Apoel Nicosia.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Apoel Nicosia vs Aris
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Apoel Nicosia at 46% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Apoel Nicosia vs Aris
Apoel Nicosia
1. Division
- D0-0away to Pafos19 October 2026
- W2-1Nea Salamis10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Apollon Limassol19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Anorthosis12 September 2026
- W6-0AEL6 September 2026
Aris
1. Division
- D1-1AEK Larnaca18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Olympiakos11 October 2026
- D0-0Karmiotissa20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Krasava Ypsonas14 September 2026
- L1-4Omonia Nicosia7 September 2026
What these results say
- Apoel Nicosia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Apoel Nicosia had three goals or more.
- Aris scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Apoel Nicosia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 8 |
| 6 | Aris | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Apoel Nicosia vs Aris
- 6 May 2026Aris 1–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
- 5 April 2026Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Aris1. Division
- 15 March 2026Aris 1–2 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
- 7 December 2025Apoel Nicosia 2–0 Aris1. Division
- 22 April 2025Apoel Nicosia 2–1 Aris1. Division
- 15 March 2025Aris 1–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Apoel Nicosia carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.59 for Aris. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Apoel Nicosia and 1.17 for Aris. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Apoel Nicosia rate 0.80 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aris rate 0.77 and 1.29.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aris, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Apoel Nicosia a 1.5% chance of the title and Aris 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Apoel Nicosia the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Apoel Nicosia against 1.17 for Aris. Apoel Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.29 for Aris.
How the model reaches 46% for Apoel Nicosia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Apoel Nicosia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Apoel Nicosia's ratings take away 12 points and Aris's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Apoel Nicosia's ratings32%−12
- Aris's ratings46%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Apoel Nicosia at home · Aris away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Apoel Nicosia 6, Aris 6.
Apoel Nicosia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Aris have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Apoel Nicosia
- at Omonia Nicosia21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 13%
- vs Krasava Ypsonas28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 60%
- at Karmiotissa2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 45%
Aris
- vs Nea Salamis21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 55%
- at Pafos29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 22%
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.