Oxford United
vs
Wycombe
League One prediction
Our model says: Oxford United 2–1 Wycombe
The model makes it 55% Oxford United, 24% draw, 21% Wycombe — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Oxford United 1.98, Wycombe 1.01.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Oxford United: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Oxford United's rating is built from 13 League One matches and Wycombe's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,272 matches.
Key facts
- Oxford United are 3rd on 26 points from 13 games; Wycombe are 13th on 18 points from 13 games — League One.
- Oxford United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Reading.
- Wycombe are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Burton Albion.
- Last 6 meetings: Wycombe 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 February 2024, ended Wycombe 0–0 Oxford United.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Oxford United vs Wycombe
Has the model earned this number?
Oxford United at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Oxford United vs Wycombe
Oxford United
League One
- W2-0Reading4 November 2026
- D1-1away to Barnsley31 October 2026
- W1-0Stockport County27 October 2026
- D0-0Bradford24 October 2026
- W2-1Wigan20 October 2026
Wycombe
League One
- W2-0Burton Albion31 October 2026
- D1-1away to AFC Wimbledon24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Cambridge United20 October 2026
- W2-0Notts County17 October 2026
- L1-4Luton10 October 2026
What these results say
- Oxford United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Oxford United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Oxford United had two goals or fewer.
- Wycombe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Oxford United | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 13 | Wycombe | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Oxford United
Chance to finish in the top two · 60% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Oxford United vs Wycombe
- 17 February 2024Wycombe 0–0 Oxford UnitedLeague One
- 28 October 2023Oxford United 2–2 WycombeLeague One
- 24 January 2023Wycombe 2–0 Oxford UnitedLeague One
- 8 October 2022Oxford United 0–1 WycombeLeague One
- 15 January 2022Wycombe 2–0 Oxford UnitedLeague One
- 11 September 2021Oxford United 0–0 WycombeLeague One
Leading scorers: Oxford United and Wycombe
Oxford United
GoalsAssists
- M. Harris61
- G. O'Donkor42
Wycombe
GoalsAssists
- J. Wareham61
- F. Onyedinma43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oxford United a 36% chance of the title and Wycombe 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oxford United the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Oxford United against 1.01 for Wycombe. Oxford United's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.99 for Wycombe.
How the model reaches 55% for Oxford United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Oxford United to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Oxford United's ratings add 5 points and Wycombe's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Oxford United's ratings47%+5
- Wycombe's ratings55%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Oxford United at home · Wycombe away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Oxford United 13, Wycombe 13.
Oxford United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Wycombe have let in 5 there.
Wycombe score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Oxford United have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Oxford United
- at Luton28 Nov · League Onewin 37%
- vs Sheffield Wednesday1 Dec · League Onewin 49%
- vs Blackpool12 Dec · League Onewin 58%
- at Doncaster15 Dec · League Onewin 50%
Wycombe
- vs Bradford28 Nov · League Onewin 38%
- at Barnsley1 Dec · League Onewin 40%
- at Mansfield Town12 Dec · League Onewin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.