Notts County
vs
Stevenage
League One prediction
Our model says: Notts County 1–0 Stevenage
The model makes it 39% Notts County, 32% draw, 29% Stevenage — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Notts County 1.15, Stevenage 0.92.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Notts County's rating is built from 12 League One matches and Stevenage's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,272 matches.
Key facts
- Notts County are 17th on 14 points from 12 games; Stevenage are 16th on 16 points from 12 games — League One.
- Notts County are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Mansfield Town.
- Stevenage have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Leicester.
- Last 6 meetings: Notts County 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 March 2019, ended Stevenage 0–3 Notts County.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Notts County vs Stevenage
Has the model earned this number?
Notts County at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Notts County vs Stevenage
Notts County
League One
- W2-0away to Mansfield Town31 October 2026
- D1-1Stockport County24 October 2026
- W2-0Sheffield Wednesday20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Wycombe17 October 2026
- L1-2Oxford United10 October 2026
Stevenage
League One
- D2-2away to Leicester31 October 2026
- L0-1Milton Keynes Dons24 October 2026
- W3-0Plymouth20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bradford17 October 2026
- W1-0Wigan10 October 2026
What these results say
- Notts County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Notts County had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Notts County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Notts County vs Stevenage
- 30 March 2019Stevenage 0–3 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 15 September 2018Notts County 3–3 StevenageLeague Two
- 24 February 2018Notts County 2–0 StevenageLeague Two
- 11 November 2017Stevenage 1–1 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 4 March 2017Stevenage 3–0 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 13 August 2016Notts County 1–1 StevenageLeague Two
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stevenage (16th, with Notts County 17th), while our numbers lean to Notts County. Notts County rate 0.51 in attack and 1.49 in defence, Stevenage 0.50 and 1.48 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Notts County a 0.5% chance of the title and Stevenage 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Notts County the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Notts County against 0.92 for Stevenage. Notts County's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.48 for Stevenage.
How the model reaches 39% for Notts County to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Notts County to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Notts County's ratings change nothing and Stevenage's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level39%−3
- Notts County's ratings39%±0
- Stevenage's ratings39%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Notts County at home · Stevenage away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Notts County 12, Stevenage 12.
Notts County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Stevenage have let in 6 there.
Stevenage score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Notts County have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Notts County
- at Milton Keynes Dons28 Nov · League Onewin 32%
- vs AFC Wimbledon1 Dec · League Onewin 54%
Stevenage
- vs Sheffield Wednesday24 Nov · League Onewin 37%
- vs Blackpool28 Nov · League Onewin 46%
- at Huddersfield1 Dec · League Onewin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.