Regular Season - 13 · 22 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Osasuna vs Malaga La Liga prediction

Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona

Our model says: Osasuna 1–0 Malaga

The model makes it 49% Osasuna, 27% draw, 24% Malaga — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Osasuna 1.66, Malaga 0.98.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.

Edge to Osasuna: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 10 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Osasuna's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Malaga's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 879 matches.

Key facts

Osasuna are 16th on 12 points from 12 games; Malaga are bottom on 5 points from 12 games — La Liga.
Osasuna are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Athletic Club.
Malaga have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Racing Santander.
Last 6 meetings: Osasuna 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 March 2019, ended Malaga 1–2 Osasuna.

More La Liga predictions

All La Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Osasuna vs Malaga

51%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Osasuna win Draw Malaga win

1–112%
1–011%
2–010%
2–110%
0–08%
0–16%
1–26%

Scores read Osasuna first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Osasuna at 49%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Osasuna vs Malaga

Osasuna

La Liga

D1-1Athletic Club7 November 2026
L1-2away to Deportivo La Coruna2 November 2026
L0-2away to Sevilla26 October 2026
W2-0Racing Santander18 October 2026
L2-5away to Real Betis11 October 2026

Malaga

La Liga

L1-2Racing Santander7 November 2026
L1-2away to Real Betis31 October 2026
D1-1away to Alaves23 October 2026
L2-5Real Sociedad18 October 2026
D1-1Espanyol9 October 2026

What these results say

Osasuna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Osasuna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Osasuna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Malaga did not win any of these 5 matches.
Malaga scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Malaga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	12	23	-11	12
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	9	23	-14	5

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Osasuna

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today

Win 33%

Draw 41%

Defeat 50%

Malaga

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 89% today

Win 83%

Draw 88%

Defeat 91%

From our La Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Malaga vs Osasuna

Malaga and Osasuna have met 6 times in the records we hold, Osasuna has won 3 of them to Malaga's 1, with 2 drawn.

The record

Osasuna won the last one 2–1 on 11 Mar 2019.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Malaga	1	2	3	6	7
Osasuna	3	2	1	7	6

Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

11 Mar 2019
Segunda DivisiónMalaga 1–2 Osasuna
3 Nov 2018
Segunda DivisiónOsasuna 2–1 Malaga
27 Jan 2017
La LigaOsasuna 1–1 Malaga
19 Aug 2016
La LigaMalaga 1–1 Osasuna
10 Mar 2014
La LigaOsasuna 0–2 Malaga
4 Oct 2013
La LigaMalaga 0–1 Osasuna

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Osasuna's attack rates 22% above Malaga's, and Osasuna concede 5% fewer than Malaga. That gives Osasuna the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Malaga	0.67	1.25
Osasuna	0.82	1.19

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Osasuna and Malaga

Osasuna

GoalsAssists

A. Budimir80

Malaga

GoalsAssists

Adrián Niño Heredia51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Osasuna Malaga

0.82 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.67

1.19 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.25

1.66 Model expected goals (this match) 0.98

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Osasuna the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Osasuna against 0.98 for Malaga. Osasuna's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.25 for Malaga.

How the model reaches 49% for Osasuna to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Osasuna to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Osasuna's ratings add 4 points and Malaga's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 49%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage44%+8
Both sides at this match's level43%−1
Osasuna's ratings47%+4
Malaga's ratings49%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

OsasunaModelMalaga

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

75%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

49%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

27%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

51%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

OsasunaMalaga

12Matches12

3W 3D 6LRecord0W 5D 7L

12 1.0 per gameGoals scored9 0.8 per game

23 1.9 per gameGoals conceded23 1.9 per game

3 of 12Clean sheets1 of 12

4 of 12Failed to score4 of 12

4 of 4Penalties scored1 of 2

33 2.8 per gameYellow cards31 2.6 per game

0Red cards1

4-3-3 4×Usual shape4-1-4-1 8×

Osasuna at home · Malaga away

6Played6

2W 3D 1LRecord0W 2D 4L

5–4Goals for – against3–11

3 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, La Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

OsasunaMalaga

Osasuna are 16th after 12 La Liga matches (between 4th and 16th so far); Malaga are 20th after 12 (between 16th and 20th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All La Liga matches this season: Osasuna 12, Malaga 12.

Osasuna scored 112522

Malaga conceded 244435

Osasuna score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Malaga have let in 4 there.

Malaga scored 122122

Osasuna conceded 342346

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Osasuna

at Valencia29 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
vs Elche6 Dec · La Ligawin 37%
at Real Madrid13 Dec · La Ligawin 6%
vs Villarreal20 Dec · La Ligawin 26%
at Real Sociedad3 Jan · La Ligawin 17%

Malaga

vs Athletic Club28 Nov · La Ligawin 26%
at Sevilla6 Dec · La Ligawin 19%
vs Barcelona13 Dec · La Ligawin 11%
at Rayo Vallecano20 Dec · La Ligawin 19%
vs Elche3 Jan · La Ligawin 30%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.