Universidad Catolica Quito
vs
Aucas
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Universidad Catolica Quito 1–0 Aucas
The model makes it 52% Universidad Catolica Quito, 26% draw, 22% Aucas — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Universidad Catolica Quito 1.82, Aucas 1.03.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Universidad Catolica Quito: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Universidad Catolica Quito are 4th on 51 points from 32 games; Aucas are 5th on 50 points from 32 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Universidad Catolica Quito have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Macara.
- Aucas have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to LDU de Quito.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 September 2026, ended Universidad Catolica Quito 1–1 Aucas.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad Catolica Quito vs Aucas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universidad Catolica Quito at 52% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universidad Catolica Quito vs Aucas
Universidad Catolica Quito
- L0-1Macara11 October 2026
- L1-2away to LDU de Quito20 September 2026
- W2-1Orense SC15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Delfin SC6 September 2026
- D1-1Aucas3 September 2026
Aucas
- D1-1LDU de Quito17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente del Valle10 October 2026
- L1-2Macara19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Manta FC12 September 2026
- D1-1Barcelona SC7 September 2026
What these results say
- Universidad Catolica Quito scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aucas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Universidad Catolica Quito | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 52 | 30 | +22 | 51 |
| 5 | Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 32 | +3 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica Quito vs Aucas
- 3 September 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 1–1 AucasLiga Pro
- 9 May 2026Aucas 2–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 3 August 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 6–2 AucasLiga Pro
- 16 April 2025Aucas 2–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 7 March 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 0–0 AucasCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 9 November 2024Universidad Catolica Quito 3–2 AucasLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica Quito and Aucas
Universidad Catolica Quito
GoalsAssists
- J. Fajardo113
- M. Alonso84
- B. Palacios61
Aucas
GoalsAssists
- A. Preciado64
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Universidad Catolica Quito carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.51 for Aucas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Universidad Catolica Quito and 1.03 for Aucas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universidad Catolica Quito rate 0.86 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aucas rate 0.66 and 1.30.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad Catolica Quito the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Universidad Catolica Quito against 1.03 for Aucas. Universidad Catolica Quito's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.3 for Aucas.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universidad Catolica Quito at home · Aucas away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Universidad Catolica Quito 32, Aucas 32.
Universidad Catolica Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (15 goals); Aucas have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Universidad Catolica Quito
- at Macara8 Nov · Liga Prowin 29%
- vs Barcelona SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 45%
- vs Independiente del Valle29 Nov · Liga Prowin 39%
Aucas
- vs Independiente del Valle8 Nov · Liga Prowin 31%
- at LDU de Quito22 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- at Barcelona SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 23%
- vs Universidad Catolica Quito6 Dec · Liga Prowin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.