Once Caldas
vs
Águilas Doradas
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Once Caldas 1–0 Águilas Doradas
The model makes it 49% Once Caldas, 28% draw, 23% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Once Caldas 1.57, Águilas Doradas 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Once Caldas's rating is built from 81 Colombian Primera A matches and Águilas Doradas's from 74, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,231 matches.
Key facts
- Once Caldas are 9th on 20 points from 15 games; Águilas Doradas are 11th on 19 points from 15 games — Primera A.
- Once Caldas are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Millonarios.
- Águilas Doradas have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Junior.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Águilas Doradas 2–2 Once Caldas.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Once Caldas at 49% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas
Once Caldas
Primera A
- D1-1away to Millonarios21 October 2026
- W2-0away to Independiente Medellin18 October 2026
- W1-0Llaneros10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional de Bogota4 October 2026
- L1-3Bucaramanga26 September 2026
Águilas Doradas
Primera A
- L0-1away to Junior24 October 2026
- W2-1Deportes Tolima18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bucaramanga13 October 2026
- D2-2away to Alianza Valledupar9 October 2026
- W2-0Jaguares3 October 2026
What these results say
- Once Caldas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Once Caldas had two goals or fewer.
- Águilas Doradas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Águilas Doradas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Once Caldas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 20 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas
- 26 April 2026Águilas Doradas 2–2 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 9 August 2025Once Caldas 1–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 22 February 2025Águilas Doradas 0–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 20 July 2024Once Caldas 1–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 26 January 2024Águilas Doradas 1–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 5 August 2023Águilas Doradas 2–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Águilas Doradas
Once Caldas
GoalsAssists
- D. Moreno161
- J. Zapata123
Águilas Doradas
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Once Caldas carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.43 for Águilas Doradas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Once Caldas and 0.90 for Águilas Doradas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Once Caldas rate 0.71 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Águilas Doradas rate 0.66 and 1.52.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Once Caldas the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Once Caldas against 0.90 for Águilas Doradas. Once Caldas's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.52 for Águilas Doradas.
How the model reaches 49% for Once Caldas to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Once Caldas to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Once Caldas's ratings take away 15 points and Águilas Doradas's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Once Caldas's ratings29%−15
- Águilas Doradas's ratings49%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Once Caldas at home · Águilas Doradas away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Once Caldas 35, Águilas Doradas 33.
Once Caldas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Águilas Doradas have let in 8 there.
Águilas Doradas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Once Caldas have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Once Caldas
- at Atletico Nacional12 Nov · Primera Awin 18%
Águilas Doradas
- vs Independiente Medellin12 Nov · Primera Awin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.