Deportes Tolima
vs
Millonarios
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportes Tolima 1–0 Millonarios
The model makes it 38% Deportes Tolima, 31% draw, 31% Millonarios — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportes Tolima 1.20, Millonarios 1.02.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Deportes Tolima's rating is built from 92 Colombian Primera A matches and Millonarios's from 81, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,231 matches.
Key facts
- Deportes Tolima are 10th on 20 points from 15 games; Millonarios are 4th on 26 points from 16 games — Primera A.
- Deportes Tolima have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Águilas Doradas.
- Millonarios are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Once Caldas.
- Last 6 meetings: Millonarios 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended Millonarios 2–0 Deportes Tolima.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Tolima at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
Deportes Tolima
Primera A
- L1-2away to Águilas Doradas18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Jaguares11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Nacional8 October 2026
- D0-0Chico3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
Millonarios
Primera A
- D1-1Once Caldas21 October 2026
- W4-1Jaguares17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza FC9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Independiente Medellin30 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Nacional25 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportes Tolima did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Millonarios went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Millonarios scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Millonarios conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 20 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios
- 24 April 2026Millonarios 2–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 17 August 2025Deportes Tolima 3–1 MillonariosPrimera A
- 2 March 2025Millonarios 2–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 3 August 2024Millonarios 1–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 3 February 2024Deportes Tolima 2–0 MillonariosPrimera A
- 8 August 2023Millonarios 1–0 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportes Tolima and Millonarios
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra94
Millonarios
GoalsAssists
- A. Estupiñán194
- L. Castro126
- R. Contreras101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportes Tolima carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.63 for Millonarios. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.02 for Millonarios. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportes Tolima rate 0.67 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Millonarios rate 0.80 and 1.24.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Millonarios, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes Tolima the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Deportes Tolima against 1.02 for Millonarios. Deportes Tolima's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.24 for Millonarios.
How the model reaches 38% for Deportes Tolima to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Deportes Tolima to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Deportes Tolima's ratings take away 15 points and Millonarios's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Deportes Tolima's ratings29%−15
- Millonarios's ratings38%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportes Tolima at home · Millonarios away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportes Tolima 37, Millonarios 34.
Deportes Tolima score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Millonarios have let in 7 there.
Millonarios score most often in the 46–60 minute window (14 goals); Deportes Tolima have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Deportes Tolima
- at Deportivo Cali12 Nov · Primera Awin 21%
Millonarios
- vs Alianza Valledupar12 Nov · Primera Awin 63%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.