Deportivo Pasto
vs
Jaguares
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Jaguares
The model makes it 47% Deportivo Pasto, 27% draw, 26% Jaguares — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportivo Pasto 1.63, Jaguares 1.08.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Deportivo Pasto's rating is built from 74 Colombian Primera A matches and Jaguares's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,228 matches.
Key facts
- Deportivo Pasto are bottom on 9 points from 13 games; Jaguares are 19th on 10 points from 14 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Pasto are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Alianza Valledupar.
- Jaguares have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Santa Fe.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Pasto 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 April 2026, ended Jaguares 2–3 Deportivo Pasto.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pasto at 47% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares
Deportivo Pasto
- L0-1Alianza Valledupar20 October 2026
- D0-0Fortaleza FC4 October 2026
- L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
- W1-0away to America de Cali15 September 2026
Jaguares
- L1-2away to Santa Fe22 October 2026
- L1-4away to Millonarios17 October 2026
- W3-2Deportes Tolima11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Pasto had two goals or fewer.
- Jaguares conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Pasto
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 73% today
Jaguares
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 62% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares
- 17 April 2026Jaguares 2–3 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 3 August 2024Jaguares 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 5 February 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–1 JaguaresPrimera A
- 20 October 2023Jaguares 1–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 9 September 2023Deportivo Pasto 1–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 8 May 2023Deportivo Pasto 4–0 JaguaresPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pasto and Jaguares
Deportivo Pasto
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería103
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Pasto carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.29 for Jaguares. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 1.08 for Jaguares. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pasto rate 0.55 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jaguares rate 0.65 and 2.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jaguares, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Pasto the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Deportivo Pasto against 1.08 for Jaguares. Deportivo Pasto's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2.04 for Jaguares.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Pasto at home · Jaguares away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Pasto 33, Jaguares 32.
Deportivo Pasto score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Jaguares have let in 13 there.
Jaguares score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Deportivo Pasto have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Pasto
- at Santa Fe10 Nov · Primera Awin 16%
- vs Junior12 Nov · Primera Awin 33%
Jaguares
- vs Bucaramanga8 Nov · Primera Awin 27%
- at Cucuta12 Nov · Primera Awin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.