Fortaleza FC
vs
Independiente Medellin
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Fortaleza FC 1–0 Independiente Medellin
The model makes it 36% Fortaleza FC, 28% draw, 36% Independiente Medellin — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fortaleza FC 1.32, Independiente Medellin 1.32.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Fortaleza FC's rating is built from 79 Colombian Primera A matches and Independiente Medellin's from 87, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,231 matches.
Key facts
- Fortaleza FC are 18th on 11 points from 14 games; Independiente Medellin are 7th on 23 points from 14 games — Primera A.
- Fortaleza FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Internacional de Bogota.
- Independiente Medellin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Once Caldas.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente Medellin 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 May 2026, ended Independiente Medellin 1–0 Fortaleza FC.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortaleza FC at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin
Fortaleza FC
Primera A
- L1-2away to Internacional de Bogota20 October 2026
- D1-1Millonarios9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pasto4 October 2026
- D2-2Deportes Tolima27 September 2026
- L1-4Junior20 September 2026
Independiente Medellin
Primera A
- L0-2Once Caldas18 October 2026
- W2-1away to America de Cali12 October 2026
- L0-1Santa Fe6 October 2026
- D2-2Millonarios30 September 2026
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortaleza FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 14 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 11 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fortaleza FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 67% today
Independiente Medellin
Chance to finish in the top eight · 76% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin
- 11 May 2026Independiente Medellin 1–0 Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
- 26 April 2026Independiente Medellin 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 17 October 2025Independiente Medellin 3–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 4 September 2025Independiente Medellin 2–1 Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
- 27 August 2025Fortaleza FC 0–0 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
- 27 April 2025Fortaleza FC 0–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
Leading scorers: Fortaleza FC and Independiente Medellin
Fortaleza FC
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo94
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fortaleza FC carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.52 for Independiente Medellin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Fortaleza FC and 1.32 for Independiente Medellin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortaleza FC rate 0.60 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente Medellin rate 0.78 and 1.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Independiente Medellin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortaleza FC a 0% chance of the title and Independiente Medellin 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortaleza FC the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Fortaleza FC against 1.32 for Independiente Medellin. Fortaleza FC's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.52 for Independiente Medellin.
How the model reaches 36% for Fortaleza FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Fortaleza FC to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Fortaleza FC's ratings take away 23 points and Independiente Medellin's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Fortaleza FC's ratings21%−23
- Independiente Medellin's ratings36%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortaleza FC at home · Independiente Medellin away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Fortaleza FC 33, Independiente Medellin 33.
Fortaleza FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Independiente Medellin have let in 7 there.
Independiente Medellin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Fortaleza FC have let in 16 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Fortaleza FC
- at Bucaramanga12 Nov · Primera Awin 17%
Independiente Medellin
- at Águilas Doradas12 Nov · Primera Awin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.