Atletico Nacional
vs
Deportivo Pereira
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Pereira
The model makes it 72% Atletico Nacional, 19% draw, 9% Deportivo Pereira — fair odds of 1.39, 5.26 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Atletico Nacional 2.36, Deportivo Pereira 0.56.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Atletico Nacional are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Atletico Nacional's rating is built from 90 Colombian Primera A matches and Deportivo Pereira's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,231 matches.
Key facts
- Atletico Nacional are top on 29 points from 14 games; Deportivo Pereira are 17th on 13 points from 14 games — Primera A.
- Atletico Nacional have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Deportivo Pasto.
- Deportivo Pereira are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Chico.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Pereira 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Atletico Nacional.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Nacional at 72% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira
Atletico Nacional
Primera A
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cucuta20 October 2026
- W4-1away to Chico17 October 2026
- D0-0Deportes Tolima8 October 2026
- W3-1Junior1 October 2026
Deportivo Pereira
Primera A
- W2-0Chico20 October 2026
- D1-1away to Junior14 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Cali10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pereira failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 29 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira
- 25 April 2026Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 23 July 2025Deportivo Pereira 2–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 10 February 2025Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 8 November 2024Deportivo Pereira 1–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 18 April 2024Atletico Nacional 0–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 2 November 2023Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportivo PereiraCopa Colombia
Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira
Atletico Nacional
GoalsAssists
- A. Morelos146
- A. Sarmiento106
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Atletico Nacional carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.23 for Deportivo Pereira. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.36 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.56 for Deportivo Pereira. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Nacional rate 0.97 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Pereira rate 0.48 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Nacional a 58.6% chance of the title and Deportivo Pereira 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Nacional the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Atletico Nacional against 0.56 for Deportivo Pereira. Atletico Nacional's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.68 for Deportivo Pereira.
How the model reaches 72% for Atletico Nacional to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Atletico Nacional to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Atletico Nacional's ratings take away 4 points and Deportivo Pereira's ratings add 32 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Atletico Nacional's ratings40%−4
- Deportivo Pereira's ratings72%+32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Nacional at home · Deportivo Pereira away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Atletico Nacional 36, Deportivo Pereira 32.
Atletico Nacional score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Deportivo Pereira have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Atletico Nacional
- vs Once Caldas12 Nov · Primera Awin 57%
Deportivo Pereira
- vs America de Cali12 Nov · Primera Awin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.