America de Cali
vs
Cucuta
Primera A prediction
Our model says: America de Cali 2–0 Cucuta
The model makes it 62% America de Cali, 23% draw, 15% Cucuta — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: America de Cali 2.02, Cucuta 0.74.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: America de Cali are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- America de Cali are top on 27 points from 13 games; Cucuta are 9th on 18 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- America de Cali have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Independiente Medellin.
- Cucuta are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Chico.
- Last 6 meetings: Cucuta 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Cucuta 2–0 America de Cali.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: America de Cali vs Cucuta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts America de Cali at 62% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into America de Cali vs Cucuta
America de Cali
- L1-2Independiente Medellin12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros5 October 2026
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto15 September 2026
Cucuta
- W1-0away to Chico11 October 2026
- W4-0Deportivo Pereira4 October 2026
- W2-1Llaneros26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Cali19 September 2026
- L1-2Millonarios14 September 2026
What these results say
- America de Cali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- America de Cali conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cucuta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cucuta had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 27 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
America de Cali
Chance to finish in the top four · 84% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: America de Cali vs Cucuta
- 5 April 2026Cucuta 2–0 America de CaliPrimera A
- 13 November 2020Cucuta 0–3 America de CaliPrimera A
- 26 October 2019Cucuta 3–1 America de CaliPrimera A
- 3 May 2019America de Cali 2–0 CucutaPrimera A
- 17 October 2016America de Cali 1–1 CucutaPrimera B
- 30 May 2016Cucuta 2–0 America de CaliPrimera B
Leading scorers: America de Cali and Cucuta
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán186
Cucuta
GoalsAssists
- J. Peralta92
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
America de Cali carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.36 for Cucuta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for America de Cali and 0.74 for Cucuta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
America de Cali rate 0.79 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cucuta rate 0.66 and 1.76.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives America de Cali a 20% chance of the title and Cucuta 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America de Cali the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for America de Cali against 0.74 for Cucuta. America de Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.76 for Cucuta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
America de Cali at home · Cucuta away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: America de Cali 33, Cucuta 31.
America de Cali score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Cucuta have let in 5 there.
Cucuta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); America de Cali have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
America de Cali
- vs Fortaleza FC29 Oct · Primera Awin 60%
- at Millonarios4 Nov · Primera Awin 29%
- vs Deportivo Cali8 Nov · Primera Awin 43%
- at Deportivo Pereira12 Nov · Primera Awin 49%
Cucuta
- vs Águilas Doradas27 Oct · Primera Awin 41%
- vs Santa Fe2 Nov · Primera Awin 30%
- at Junior8 Nov · Primera Awin 20%
- vs Jaguares12 Nov · Primera Awin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.