AEK Larnaca
vs
Karmiotissa
1. Division prediction
Our model says: AEK Larnaca 2–0 Karmiotissa
The model makes it 72% AEK Larnaca, 19% draw, 9% Karmiotissa — fair odds of 1.39, 5.26 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: AEK Larnaca 2.36, Karmiotissa 0.56.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
One-sided: AEK Larnaca are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. AEK Larnaca's rating is built from 42 Cypriot First Division matches and Karmiotissa's from 6, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- AEK Larnaca are 2nd on 13 points from 6 games; Karmiotissa are bottom on 3 points from 6 games — 1. Division.
- AEK Larnaca are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Aris.
- Karmiotissa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Krasava Ypsonas.
- Last 6 meetings: AEK Larnaca 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2025, ended Karmiotissa 0–3 AEK Larnaca.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Larnaca at 72% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa
AEK Larnaca
1. Division
- D1-1away to Aris18 October 2026
- W1-0Omonia Aradippou12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Omonia 29is Maiou18 September 2026
- L0-1Pafos13 September 2026
- W4-1away to Nea Salamis6 September 2026
Karmiotissa
1. Division
- L1-2away to Krasava Ypsonas17 October 2026
- L0-3Omonia Nicosia9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Aris20 September 2026
- D1-1Omonia Aradippou12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Omonia 29is Maiou4 September 2026
What these results say
- AEK Larnaca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEK Larnaca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karmiotissa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Karmiotissa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 |
| 14 | Karmiotissa | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa
- 22 February 2025Karmiotissa 0–3 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 25 November 2024AEK Larnaca 2–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 26 January 2024Karmiotissa 1–3 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 21 October 2023AEK Larnaca 5–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 4 February 2023Karmiotissa 1–3 AEK Larnaca1. Division
- 30 October 2022AEK Larnaca 4–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
A clear gap in the ratings
AEK Larnaca carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.29 for Karmiotissa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.36 goals for AEK Larnaca and 0.56 for Karmiotissa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEK Larnaca rate 0.92 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Karmiotissa rate 0.51 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AEK Larnaca a 22.9% chance of the title and Karmiotissa 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Larnaca the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for AEK Larnaca against 0.56 for Karmiotissa. AEK Larnaca's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.58 for Karmiotissa.
How the model reaches 72% for AEK Larnaca to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AEK Larnaca to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, AEK Larnaca's ratings change nothing and Karmiotissa's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- AEK Larnaca's ratings44%±0
- Karmiotissa's ratings72%+28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AEK Larnaca at home · Karmiotissa away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: AEK Larnaca 6, Karmiotissa 6.
Karmiotissa score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); AEK Larnaca have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
AEK Larnaca
- at Olympiakos22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 42%
- vs Apollon Limassol27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 52%
- vs AEL1 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 62%
Karmiotissa
- vs AEL22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 32%
- at Anorthosis28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 25%
- vs Apoel Nicosia2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.