ES Sahel
vs
CS Sfaxien
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Sahel 1–2 CS Sfaxien
The model makes it 26% ES Sahel, 25% draw, 49% CS Sfaxien — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: ES Sahel 1.26, CS Sfaxien 1.95.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
One-sided: CS Sfaxien are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. ES Sahel's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and CS Sfaxien's from 35, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ES Sahel are 11th on 7 points from 6 games; CS Sfaxien are 9th on 8 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Sahel have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Olympique Béja.
- CS Sfaxien have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer.
- Last 6 meetings: CS Sfaxien 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 May 2026, ended CS Sfaxien 3–1 ES Sahel.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CS Sfaxien at 49% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien
ES Sahel
Ligue 1
- W2-1away to Olympique Béja18 October 2026
- L0-1CS Hammam-Lif11 October 2026
- L0-1away to AS Marsa12 September 2026
- D1-1Jeunesse Sportive Omrane6 September 2026
- W2-1ES Metlaoui30 August 2026
CS Sfaxien
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer10 October 2026
- W2-0CA Bizertin20 September 2026
- D1-1away to US Ben Guerdane16 September 2026
- W2-1ES Zarzis29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Stade Tunisien22 August 2026
What these results say
- ES Sahel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CS Sfaxien scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CS Sfaxien conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CS Sfaxien had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ES Sahel vs CS Sfaxien
- 14 May 2026CS Sfaxien 3–1 ES SahelLigue 1
- 23 November 2025ES Sahel 0–1 CS SfaxienLigue 1
- 15 May 2025ES Sahel 0–1 CS SfaxienLigue 1
- 26 January 2025CS Sfaxien 0–1 ES SahelLigue 1
- 15 June 2024ES Sahel 1–2 CS SfaxienLigue 1
- 13 April 2024CS Sfaxien 0–0 ES SahelLigue 1
The two sides
ES Sahel carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.61 for CS Sfaxien. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for ES Sahel and 1.95 for CS Sfaxien. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ES Sahel rate 0.61 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CS Sfaxien rate 0.78 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ES Sahel a 0.1% chance of the title and CS Sfaxien 22%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on ES Sahel v CS Sfaxien has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 24% / 24% / 52% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is CS Sfaxien's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- ES Sahel win26%▲ +2
- Draw25%▲ +1
- CS Sfaxien win49%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CS Sfaxien the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for ES Sahel against 1.95 for CS Sfaxien. ES Sahel's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.27 for CS Sfaxien.
How the model reaches 49% for CS Sfaxien to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CS Sfaxien to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, ES Sahel's ratings add 35 points and CS Sfaxien's ratings take away 15 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- ES Sahel's ratings64%+35
- CS Sfaxien's ratings49%−15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ES Sahel at home · CS Sfaxien away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Sahel 6, CS Sfaxien 5.
ES Sahel score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); CS Sfaxien have let in 0 there.
CS Sfaxien score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); ES Sahel have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
ES Sahel
- at US Monastirienne21 Nov · Ligue 1win 20%
- vs Club Africain28 Nov · Ligue 1win 27%
- at ES Hammam-Sousse5 Dec · Ligue 1win 45%
- vs Stade Tunisien12 Dec · Ligue 1win 35%
- at ES Zarzis19 Dec · Ligue 1win 24%
CS Sfaxien
- vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane21 Nov · Ligue 1win 64%
- at AS Marsa28 Nov · Ligue 1win 45%
- vs CS Hammam-Lif5 Dec · Ligue 1win 63%
- at Olympique Béja12 Dec · Ligue 1win 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.