Olympiakos Piraeus
vs
PAOK
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 PAOK
The model makes it 41% Olympiakos Piraeus, 30% draw, 29% PAOK — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.25, PAOK 0.96.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Olympiakos Piraeus's rating is built from 39 Greek Super League matches and PAOK's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 523 matches.
Key facts
- Olympiakos Piraeus are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games; PAOK are 4th on 15 points from 7 games — Super League 1.
- Olympiakos Piraeus are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Panetolikos.
- PAOK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Iraklis 1908.
- Last 6 meetings: PAOK 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 1–1 PAOK.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olympiakos Piraeus at 41% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK
Olympiakos Piraeus
Super League 1
- W2-0away to Panetolikos18 October 2026
- W1-0Panathinaikos11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Levadiakos20 September 2026
- L0-1OFI12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Volos NFC5 September 2026
PAOK
Super League 1
- W2-1Iraklis 190818 October 2026
- L1-3Kalamata12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Panetolikos20 September 2026
- W2-0Aris Thessalonikis13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Olympiakos Piraeus had two goals or fewer.
- Olympiakos Piraeus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAOK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PAOK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAOK had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 16 |
| 4 | PAOK | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK
- 10 May 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 1–1 PAOKSuper League 1
- 3 May 2026PAOK 3–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 8 March 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 0–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 14 January 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 0–2 PAOKCup
- 5 October 2025PAOK 2–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 4 May 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 4–2 PAOKSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK
Olympiakos Piraeus
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- D. Pelkas30
- C. Ndiaye30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Olympiakos Piraeus carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.93 for PAOK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.96 for PAOK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Olympiakos Piraeus rate 0.86 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PAOK rate 1.16 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 7.7% chance of the title and PAOK 8.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus against 0.96 for PAOK. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.99 for PAOK.
How the model reaches 41% for Olympiakos Piraeus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olympiakos Piraeus to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Olympiakos Piraeus's ratings add 3 points and PAOK's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Olympiakos Piraeus's ratings44%+3
- PAOK's ratings41%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Olympiakos Piraeus at home · PAOK away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Olympiakos PiraeusPAOK
Olympiakos Piraeus are 3rd after 7 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); PAOK are 4th after 7 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Olympiakos Piraeus 7, PAOK 7.
Olympiakos Piraeus score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); PAOK have let in 1 there.
PAOK score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Olympiakos Piraeus have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Olympiakos Piraeus
- vs Iraklis 190822 Nov · Super League 1win 57%
- vs AC Milan26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 34%
PAOK
- vs Kifisia22 Nov · Super League 1win 64%
- at AEK Athens FC29 Nov · Super League 1win 21%
- vs Volos NFC6 Dec · Super League 1win 72%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.