OFI
vs
Atromitos
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: OFI 2–1 Atromitos
The model makes it 42% OFI, 27% draw, 31% Atromitos — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: OFI 1.63, Atromitos 1.34.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. OFI's rating is built from 39 Greek Super League matches and Atromitos's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 523 matches.
Key facts
- OFI are 8th on 10 points from 7 games; Atromitos are 13th on 2 points from 6 games — Super League 1.
- OFI are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to Kalamata.
- Atromitos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Asteras Tripolis.
- Last 6 meetings: Atromitos 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Atromitos 1–2 OFI.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: OFI vs Atromitos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts OFI at 42% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into OFI vs Atromitos
OFI
Super League 1
- L3-4away to Kalamata18 October 2026
- L0-3away to AEK Athens FC10 October 2026
- D2-2Asteras Tripolis20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus12 September 2026
- W2-0Kifisia6 September 2026
Atromitos
Super League 1
- L1-2away to Asteras Tripolis10 October 2026
- L1-2Kifisia19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Iraklis 190812 September 2026
- D1-1Kalamata6 September 2026
- L1-2PAOK30 August 2026
What these results say
- OFI scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atromitos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Atromitos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atromitos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | OFI | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: OFI vs Atromitos
- 31 January 2026Atromitos 1–2 OFISuper League 1
- 25 October 2025OFI 1–3 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 10 May 2025Atromitos 0–0 OFISuper League 1
- 29 March 2025OFI 1–2 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 14 December 2024Atromitos 0–0 OFISuper League 1
- 24 August 2024OFI 1–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: OFI and Atromitos
OFI
GoalsAssists
- T. Nuss31
- K. Kodro30
Atromitos
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
OFI carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.57 for Atromitos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for OFI and 1.34 for Atromitos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
OFI rate 0.85 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atromitos rate 0.75 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OFI the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for OFI against 1.34 for Atromitos. OFI's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.31 for Atromitos.
How the model reaches 42% for OFI to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for OFI to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, OFI's ratings take away 14 points and Atromitos's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- OFI's ratings27%−14
- Atromitos's ratings42%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
OFI at home · Atromitos away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
OFIAtromitos
OFI are 8th after 7 Super League 1 matches (between 2nd and 6th so far); Atromitos are 13th after 6 (between 9th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: OFI 7, Atromitos 6.
OFI score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Atromitos have let in 2 there.
Atromitos score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); OFI have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
OFI
- at Panathinaikos22 Nov · Super League 1win 13%
- vs Anderlecht26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 31%
Atromitos
- at Levadiakos22 Nov · Super League 1win 36%
- vs Panathinaikos29 Nov · Super League 1win 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.