Iraklis 1908
vs
Panathinaikos
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Iraklis 1908 0–1 Panathinaikos
The model makes it 20% Iraklis 1908, 27% draw, 53% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 5.00, 3.70 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).
Expected goals: Iraklis 1908 0.87, Panathinaikos 1.72.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Panathinaikos are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Iraklis 1908's rating is built from 8 Greek Super League matches and Panathinaikos's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 523 matches.
Key facts
- Iraklis 1908 are 9th on 9 points from 8 games; Panathinaikos are top on 18 points from 7 games — Super League 1.
- Iraklis 1908 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Kifisia.
- Panathinaikos have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Asteras Tripolis.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Iraklis 1908 vs Panathinaikos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Panathinaikos at 53% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Iraklis 1908 vs Panathinaikos
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1
- L2-3Kifisia24 October 2026
- L1-2away to PAOK18 October 2026
- W2-0Levadiakos11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Aris Thessalonikis19 September 2026
- D1-1Atromitos12 September 2026
Panathinaikos
Super League 1
- W5-1Asteras Tripolis18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Kalamata20 September 2026
- W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
- W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
What these results say
- Iraklis 1908 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Iraklis 1908 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Iraklis 1908 and Panathinaikos
Iraklis 1908
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- A. Tetteh40
- V. Taborda31
- C. Dessers20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Iraklis 1908 carry a model rating of 6.57 against 7.02 for Panathinaikos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.87 goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.72 for Panathinaikos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Iraklis 1908 rate 0.72 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Panathinaikos rate 1.14 and 0.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Iraklis 1908 a 0% chance of the title and Panathinaikos 34.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Panathinaikos the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 against 1.72 for Panathinaikos. Iraklis 1908's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.82 for Panathinaikos.
How the model reaches 53% for Panathinaikos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Panathinaikos to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Iraklis 1908's ratings add 14 points and Panathinaikos's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Iraklis 1908's ratings45%+14
- Panathinaikos's ratings53%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Iraklis 1908 at home · Panathinaikos away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Iraklis 1908Panathinaikos
Iraklis 1908 are 9th after 8 Super League 1 matches (between 7th and 13th so far); Panathinaikos are 1st after 7 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Iraklis 1908 8, Panathinaikos 7.
Iraklis 1908 score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Panathinaikos have let in 1 there.
Panathinaikos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Iraklis 1908 have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Iraklis 1908
- at Olympiakos Piraeus22 Nov · Super League 1win 16%
- vs Panetolikos28 Nov · Super League 1win 49%
- at OFI6 Dec · Super League 1win 31%
- vs Aris Thessalonikis12 Dec · Super League 1win 39%
Panathinaikos
- vs OFI22 Nov · Super League 1win 67%
- at FC Nordsjaelland26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.