AEK Athens FC
vs
Levadiakos
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: AEK Athens FC 2–0 Levadiakos
The model makes it 76% AEK Athens FC, 17% draw, 7% Levadiakos — fair odds of 1.32, 5.88 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (16%).
Expected goals: AEK Athens FC 2.53, Levadiakos 0.49.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: AEK Athens FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. AEK Athens FC's rating is built from 39 Greek Super League matches and Levadiakos's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 523 matches.
Key facts
- AEK Athens FC are 2nd on 17 points from 7 games; Levadiakos are 12th on 3 points from 8 games — Super League 1.
- AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-0 win at home to Panetolikos.
- Levadiakos have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Asteras Tripolis.
- Last 6 meetings: AEK Athens FC 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended AEK Athens FC 4–0 Levadiakos.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Athens FC at 76% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1
- W5-0Panetolikos24 October 2026
- W3-0OFI10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Asteras Tripolis13 September 2026
- W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
Levadiakos
Super League 1
- D0-0away to Asteras Tripolis24 October 2026
- D0-0Volos NFC17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Iraklis 190811 October 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Kifisia13 September 2026
What these results say
- AEK Athens FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AEK Athens FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AEK Athens FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levadiakos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Levadiakos failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Levadiakos had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 3 | +18 | 17 |
| 12 | Levadiakos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos
- 22 February 2026AEK Athens FC 4–0 LevadiakosSuper League 1
- 14 September 2025Levadiakos 0–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 22 December 2024AEK Athens FC 1–1 LevadiakosSuper League 1
- 1 September 2024Levadiakos 0–3 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 13 February 2023AEK Athens FC 3–0 LevadiakosSuper League 1
- 24 October 2022Levadiakos 0–2 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos
AEK Athens FC
GoalsAssists
- B. Varga40
- L. Jović40
- Zini20
Levadiakos
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
AEK Athens FC carry a model rating of 7.16 against 6.45 for Levadiakos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.49 for Levadiakos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AEK Athens FC rate 1.29 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levadiakos rate 0.59 and 1.34.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AEK Athens FC a 48.4% chance of the title and Levadiakos 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for AEK Athens FC against 0.49 for Levadiakos. AEK Athens FC's attack/defence rating is 1.29/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.34 for Levadiakos.
How the model reaches 76% for AEK Athens FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AEK Athens FC to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, AEK Athens FC's ratings add 16 points and Levadiakos's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 76%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- AEK Athens FC's ratings57%+16
- Levadiakos's ratings76%+19
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AEK Athens FC at home · Levadiakos away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AEK Athens FCLevadiakos
AEK Athens FC are 2nd after 7 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Levadiakos are 12th after 8 (between 12th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: AEK Athens FC 7, Levadiakos 8.
AEK Athens FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Levadiakos have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AEK Athens FC
- at Kalamata21 Nov · Super League 1win 61%
- at Como24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 28%
Levadiakos
- vs Atromitos22 Nov · Super League 1win 34%
- at OFI29 Nov · Super League 1win 25%
- at Kalamata6 Dec · Super League 1win 22%
- vs Asteras Tripolis12 Dec · Super League 1win 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.