Asteras Tripolis
vs
Kalamata
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Asteras Tripolis 1–2 Kalamata
The model makes it 30% Asteras Tripolis, 27% draw, 43% Kalamata — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 1.29, Kalamata 1.63.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Kalamata: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Asteras Tripolis's rating is built from 44 Greek Super League matches and Kalamata's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 523 matches.
Key facts
- Asteras Tripolis are 11th on 6 points from 8 games; Kalamata are 7th on 10 points from 7 games — Super League 1.
- Asteras Tripolis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Levadiakos.
- Kalamata have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to OFI.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kalamata at 43% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1
- D0-0Levadiakos24 October 2026
- L1-5away to Panathinaikos18 October 2026
- W2-1Atromitos10 October 2026
- D2-2away to OFI20 September 2026
- D1-1AEK Athens FC13 September 2026
Kalamata
Super League 1
- W4-3OFI18 October 2026
- W3-1away to PAOK12 October 2026
- L0-1Panathinaikos20 September 2026
- W3-1Volos NFC13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atromitos6 September 2026
What these results say
- Asteras Tripolis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kalamata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalamata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Kalamata.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 6 |
| 7 | Kalamata | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda21
- K. Ketu20
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- D. Kurminowski40
- K. Vargas30
- E. Hamza20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Asteras Tripolis carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.65 for Kalamata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.63 for Kalamata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Asteras Tripolis rate 0.61 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kalamata rate 0.94 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Asteras Tripolis a 0% chance of the title and Kalamata 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kalamata the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis against 1.63 for Kalamata. Asteras Tripolis's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.44 for Kalamata.
How the model reaches 43% for Kalamata to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kalamata to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Asteras Tripolis's ratings add 22 points and Kalamata's ratings take away 10 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Asteras Tripolis's ratings53%+22
- Kalamata's ratings43%−10
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Asteras Tripolis at home · Kalamata away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Asteras TripolisKalamata
Asteras Tripolis are 11th after 8 Super League 1 matches (between 10th and 12th so far); Kalamata are 7th after 7 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Asteras Tripolis 8, Kalamata 7.
Asteras Tripolis score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Kalamata have let in 2 there.
Kalamata score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Asteras Tripolis have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Asteras Tripolis
- vs Aris Thessalonikis23 Nov · Super League 1win 31%
- at Volos NFC28 Nov · Super League 1win 32%
- vs Kifisia6 Dec · Super League 1win 35%
- at Levadiakos12 Dec · Super League 1win 29%
Kalamata
- vs AEK Athens FC21 Nov · Super League 1win 17%
- at Kifisia28 Nov · Super League 1win 38%
- vs Levadiakos6 Dec · Super League 1win 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.