Novorizontino
vs
Fortaleza EC
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Novorizontino 1–0 Fortaleza EC
The model makes it 51% Novorizontino, 26% draw, 23% Fortaleza EC — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Novorizontino 1.78, Fortaleza EC 1.00.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
Edge to Novorizontino: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Novorizontino's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie B matches and Fortaleza EC's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Novorizontino are 2nd on 61 points from 34 games; Fortaleza EC are 4th on 60 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Novorizontino are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Vila Nova.
- Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Sport Recife.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novorizontino at 51% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC
Novorizontino
Serie B
- D2-2away to Vila Nova18 October 2026
- W5-1Ponte Preta12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Nautico Recife8 October 2026
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
- D0-0São Bernardo25 September 2026
Fortaleza EC
Serie B
- W2-0away to Sport Recife16 October 2026
- D2-2CRB12 October 2026
- W1-0away to America Mineiro7 October 2026
- D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
- D2-2Athletic Club MG27 September 2026
What these results say
- Novorizontino went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Novorizontino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Novorizontino | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 61 | 30 | +31 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 29 | +12 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC
- 18 July 2026Fortaleza EC 1–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
Leading scorers: Novorizontino and Fortaleza EC
Novorizontino
GoalsAssists
- Robson165
- Romulo119
Fortaleza EC
GoalsAssists
- Maílton83
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Novorizontino carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.5 for Fortaleza EC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Novorizontino and 1.00 for Fortaleza EC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Novorizontino rate 0.86 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortaleza EC rate 0.62 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Novorizontino a 36.9% chance of the title and Fortaleza EC 14.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novorizontino the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Novorizontino against 1.00 for Fortaleza EC. Novorizontino's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.27 for Fortaleza EC.
How the model reaches 51% for Novorizontino to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Novorizontino to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Novorizontino's ratings take away 11 points and Fortaleza EC's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Novorizontino's ratings33%−11
- Fortaleza EC's ratings51%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Novorizontino at home · Fortaleza EC away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Novorizontino 34, Fortaleza EC 34.
Novorizontino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Fortaleza EC have let in 3 there.
Fortaleza EC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Novorizontino have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Novorizontino
- at Criciuma14 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
Fortaleza EC
- vs Vila Nova14 Nov · Serie Bwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.