Bate Borisov
vs
Torpedo Zhodino
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bate Borisov 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino
The model makes it 38% Bate Borisov, 30% draw, 32% Torpedo Zhodino — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bate Borisov 1.21, Torpedo Zhodino 1.08.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Bate Borisov's rating is built from 55 Belarusian Premier League matches and Torpedo Zhodino's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bate Borisov are 13th on 21 points from 25 games; Torpedo Zhodino are 9th on 33 points from 25 games — Premier League.
- Bate Borisov have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Dnepr Mogilev.
- Torpedo Zhodino have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Naftan.
- Last 6 meetings: Torpedo Zhodino 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended Torpedo Zhodino 3–0 Bate Borisov.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bate Borisov vs Torpedo Zhodino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bate Borisov at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bate Borisov vs Torpedo Zhodino
Bate Borisov
Premier League
- L1-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev18 October 2026
- L0-2Neman14 October 2026
- W2-1Slavia Mozyr10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 September 2026
- D2-2Naftan13 September 2026
Torpedo Zhodino
Premier League
- W1-0Naftan19 October 2026
- L0-2away to ML Vitebsk15 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Minsk10 October 2026
- L0-6away to FC Vitebsk20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Neman12 September 2026
What these results say
- Bate Borisov conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bate Borisov failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Torpedo Zhodino had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bate Borisov | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 21 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bate Borisov vs Torpedo Zhodino
- 27 June 2026Torpedo Zhodino 3–0 Bate BorisovPremier League
- 14 March 2026Bate Borisov 2–0 Torpedo ZhodinoCoppa
- 7 March 2026Torpedo Zhodino 1–0 Bate BorisovCoppa
- 25 October 2025Bate Borisov 1–0 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
- 31 May 2025Torpedo Zhodino 3–2 Bate BorisovPremier League
- 25 August 2024Bate Borisov 1–2 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bate Borisov carry a model rating of 6.03 against 6.12 for Torpedo Zhodino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Bate Borisov and 1.08 for Torpedo Zhodino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bate Borisov rate 0.38 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torpedo Zhodino rate 0.45 and 1.96.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Torpedo Zhodino, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bate Borisov the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bate Borisov against 1.08 for Torpedo Zhodino. Bate Borisov's attack/defence rating is 0.38/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.96 for Torpedo Zhodino.
How the model reaches 38% for Bate Borisov to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bate Borisov to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Bate Borisov's ratings take away 34 points and Torpedo Zhodino's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Bate Borisov's ratings10%−34
- Torpedo Zhodino's ratings38%+28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bate Borisov at home · Torpedo Zhodino away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bate Borisov 25, Torpedo Zhodino 25.
Torpedo Zhodino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Bate Borisov have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Bate Borisov
- at FC Gomel21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 18%
- vs FC Isloch Minsk R.28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
Torpedo Zhodino
- at FC Isloch Minsk R.21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Baranovichi28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.