Ascoli
vs
Palermo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Ascoli 0–1 Palermo
The model makes it 33% Ascoli, 31% draw, 36% Palermo — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Ascoli 1.09, Palermo 1.15.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 939 settled matches.
A tight game: Ascoli and Palermo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Ascoli's rating is built from 7 Serie B matches and Palermo's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 849 matches.
Key facts
- Ascoli are 6th on 12 points from 7 games; Palermo are top on 19 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Ascoli are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Empoli.
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Mantova.
- Last 6 meetings: Palermo 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 May 2024, ended Palermo 2–2 Ascoli.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ascoli vs Palermo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palermo at 36% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ascoli vs Palermo
Ascoli
Serie B
- D1-1Empoli17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sudtirol10 October 2026
- W3-1Avellino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Padova12 September 2026
- W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
Palermo
Serie B
- W2-0away to Mantova17 October 2026
- W4-2away to Empoli10 October 2026
- W2-1Padova19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Avellino13 September 2026
- W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Palermo won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ascoli | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 1 | Palermo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ascoli vs Palermo
- 5 May 2024Palermo 2–2 AscoliSerie B
- 16 September 2023Ascoli 0–1 PalermoSerie B
- 29 January 2023Ascoli 1–2 PalermoSerie B
- 27 August 2022Palermo 2–3 AscoliSerie B
- 4 May 2019Ascoli 1–2 PalermoSerie B
- 27 December 2018Palermo 3–0 AscoliSerie B
Leading scorers: Ascoli and Palermo
Ascoli
GoalsAssists
- A. Silipo30
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen45
- J. Pohjanpalo22
- D. Vavassori21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ascoli carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.76 for Palermo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Ascoli and 1.15 for Palermo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ascoli rate 0.65 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Palermo rate 0.94 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ascoli a 4.6% chance of the title and Palermo 60%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palermo the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ascoli against 1.15 for Palermo. Ascoli's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.12 for Palermo.
How the model reaches 36% for Palermo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Palermo to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Ascoli's ratings add 10 points and Palermo's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Ascoli's ratings40%+10
- Palermo's ratings36%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ascoli at home · Palermo away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AscoliPalermo
Ascoli are 6th after 7 Serie B matches (between 2nd and 5th so far); Palermo are 1st after 7 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Ascoli 7, Palermo 7.
Ascoli score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Palermo have let in 1 there.
Palermo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Ascoli have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Ascoli
- vs Vicenza Virtus21 Nov · Serie Bwin 53%
- at Cesena24 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
Palermo
- at Catanzaro21 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs Sudtirol24 Nov · Serie Bwin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.