Belshina
vs
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Belshina 1–2 FC Isloch Minsk R.
The model makes it 22% Belshina, 25% draw, 53% FC Isloch Minsk R. — fair odds of 4.55, 4.00 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Belshina 1.06, FC Isloch Minsk R. 1.96.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Isloch Minsk R. are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Belshina's rating is built from 26 Belarusian Premier League matches and FC Isloch Minsk R.'s from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Belshina are 14th on 21 points from 24 games; FC Isloch Minsk R. are 3rd on 49 points from 24 games — Premier League.
- Belshina have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Slavia Mozyr.
- FC Isloch Minsk R. have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to FC Minsk.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Isloch Minsk R. 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended FC Isloch Minsk R. 4–0 Belshina.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Belshina vs FC Isloch Minsk R.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Isloch Minsk R. at 53% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Belshina vs FC Isloch Minsk R.
Belshina
Premier League
- L2-4Slavia Mozyr19 October 2026
- L1-4away to Naftan10 October 2026
- W2-0FC Minsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Vitebsk12 September 2026
- D2-2Neman6 September 2026
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Premier League
- W4-2FC Minsk17 October 2026
- D0-0away to FC Vitebsk11 October 2026
- L1-2Neman19 September 2026
- W2-1FC Gomel13 September 2026
- D1-1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk7 September 2026
What these results say
- Belshina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Belshina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Isloch Minsk R. scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Isloch Minsk R. conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for FC Isloch Minsk R..
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Belshina | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 21 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 41 | 20 | +21 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Belshina vs FC Isloch Minsk R.
- 28 June 2026FC Isloch Minsk R. 4–0 BelshinaPremier League
- 26 August 2023Belshina 0–2 FC Isloch Minsk R.Premier League
- 14 April 2023FC Isloch Minsk R. 2–0 BelshinaPremier League
- 9 October 2022FC Isloch Minsk R. 2–0 BelshinaPremier League
- 21 May 2022Belshina 2–1 FC Isloch Minsk R.Premier League
- 13 September 2020Belshina 2–3 FC Isloch Minsk R.Premier League
The two sides
Belshina carry a model rating of 5.96 against 6.42 for FC Isloch Minsk R.. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Belshina and 1.96 for FC Isloch Minsk R.. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Belshina rate 0.44 in attack and 2.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Isloch Minsk R. rate 0.62 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Belshina a 0% chance of the title and FC Isloch Minsk R. 8.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Isloch Minsk R. the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Belshina against 1.96 for FC Isloch Minsk R.. Belshina's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.48 for FC Isloch Minsk R..
How the model reaches 53% for FC Isloch Minsk R. to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Isloch Minsk R. to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Belshina's ratings add 49 points and FC Isloch Minsk R.'s ratings take away 25 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Belshina's ratings78%+49
- FC Isloch Minsk R.'s ratings53%−25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Belshina at home · FC Isloch Minsk R. away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Belshina 24, FC Isloch Minsk R. 24.
Belshina score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); FC Isloch Minsk R. have let in 3 there.
FC Isloch Minsk R. score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Belshina have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Belshina
- at Baranovichi21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs ML Vitebsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
- vs Torpedo Zhodino21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 59%
- at Bate Borisov28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.