Sport Recife
vs
Criciuma
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Sport Recife 1–0 Criciuma
The model makes it 48% Sport Recife, 28% draw, 24% Criciuma — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.57, Criciuma 0.93.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sport Recife are 8th on 51 points from 33 games; Criciuma are 5th on 56 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Sport Recife are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Atletico Goianiense.
- Criciuma have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to America Mineiro.
- Last 6 meetings: Criciuma 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 4 July 2026, ended Criciuma 1–0 Sport Recife.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sport Recife vs Criciuma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sport Recife at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sport Recife vs Criciuma
Sport Recife
- D1-1away to Atletico Goianiense11 October 2026
- W2-1São Bernardo6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Athletic Club MG1 October 2026
- L1-3away to Nautico Recife26 September 2026
- W2-1Juventude19 September 2026
Criciuma
- W1-0America Mineiro12 October 2026
- L0-1away to Ceara8 October 2026
- W2-0away to Londrina2 October 2026
- W3-0Avai27 September 2026
- L0-2Operario-PR22 September 2026
What these results say
- Sport Recife scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sport Recife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Sport Recife.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Criciuma had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 45 | 35 | +10 | 51 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sport Recife
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
Criciuma
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sport Recife vs Criciuma
- 4 July 2026Criciuma 1–0 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 9 September 2023Sport Recife 3–3 CriciumaSerie B
- 25 May 2023Criciuma 1–0 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 3 August 2022Sport Recife 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 23 April 2022Criciuma 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 9 November 2019Sport Recife 1–0 CriciumaSerie B
Leading scorers: Sport Recife and Criciuma
Sport Recife
GoalsAssists
- Perotti121
- Chrystian Barletta114
Criciuma
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sport Recife carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.41 for Criciuma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Sport Recife and 0.93 for Criciuma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sport Recife rate 0.72 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Criciuma rate 0.54 and 1.34.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Criciuma, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sport Recife a 0% chance of the title and Criciuma 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sport Recife the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sport Recife against 0.93 for Criciuma. Sport Recife's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.34 for Criciuma.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sport Recife at home · Criciuma away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Sport Recife 33, Criciuma 33.
Sport Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Criciuma have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sport Recife
- at Botafogo SP31 Oct · Serie Bwin 40%
- at Operario-PR6 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
- vs Goias14 Nov · Serie Bwin 54%
Criciuma
- vs Ponte Preta30 Oct · Serie Bwin 74%
- at Vila Nova6 Nov · Serie Bwin 25%
- vs Novorizontino14 Nov · Serie Bwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.