Atletico Goianiense
vs
Novorizontino
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Atletico Goianiense 0–1 Novorizontino
The model makes it 35% Atletico Goianiense, 28% draw, 37% Novorizontino — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atletico Goianiense 1.30, Novorizontino 1.35.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Atletico Goianiense and Novorizontino are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Atletico Goianiense are 6th on 53 points from 33 games; Novorizontino are 2nd on 60 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Atletico Goianiense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sport Recife.
- Novorizontino are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Ponte Preta.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 4 July 2026, ended Novorizontino 3–0 Atletico Goianiense.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novorizontino at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino
Atletico Goianiense
- D1-1Sport Recife11 October 2026
- L1-3away to CRB7 October 2026
- W2-0America Mineiro3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Goias26 September 2026
- L0-1away to São Bernardo19 September 2026
Novorizontino
- W5-1Ponte Preta12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Nautico Recife8 October 2026
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
- D0-0São Bernardo25 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ceara18 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Goianiense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Goianiense had two goals or fewer.
- Novorizontino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 53 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 59 | 28 | +31 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atletico Goianiense
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
Novorizontino
Chance to win the league · 40% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino
- 4 July 2026Novorizontino 3–0 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 8 September 2025Novorizontino 1–1 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
- 4 May 2025Atletico Goianiense 1–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 1 November 2023Atletico Goianiense 2–2 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 7 July 2023Novorizontino 2–2 Atletico GoianienseSerie B
Leading scorers: Atletico Goianiense and Novorizontino
Atletico Goianiense
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Coutinho130
Novorizontino
GoalsAssists
- Robson155
- Romulo119
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Goianiense carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.64 for Novorizontino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.35 for Novorizontino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Goianiense rate 0.63 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Novorizontino rate 0.83 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atletico Goianiense a 0.2% chance of the title and Novorizontino 40.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novorizontino the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense against 1.35 for Novorizontino. Atletico Goianiense's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.27 for Novorizontino.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Goianiense at home · Novorizontino away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Atletico Goianiense 33, Novorizontino 33.
Novorizontino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Atletico Goianiense have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Goianiense
- at Fortaleza EC2 Nov · Serie Bwin 23%
- at Athletic Club MG8 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- vs Cuiaba14 Nov · Serie Bwin 45%
Novorizontino
- vs Operario-PR1 Nov · Serie Bwin 65%
- vs Fortaleza EC7 Nov · Serie Bwin 47%
- at Criciuma14 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.