São Bernardo
vs
Vila Nova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: São Bernardo 2–1 Vila Nova
The model makes it 42% São Bernardo, 27% draw, 31% Vila Nova — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: São Bernardo 1.53, Vila Nova 1.24.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- São Bernardo are 12th on 46 points from 33 games; Vila Nova are top on 61 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- São Bernardo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Juventude.
- Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Nautico Recife.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
Has the model earned this number?
It puts São Bernardo at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
São Bernardo
- D2-2away to Juventude11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Recife6 October 2026
- W3-1CRB2 October 2026
- D0-0away to Novorizontino25 September 2026
- W1-0Atletico Goianiense19 September 2026
Vila Nova
- W2-0away to Nautico Recife11 October 2026
- D0-0Cuiaba7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botafogo SP3 October 2026
- W2-0Londrina25 September 2026
- W1-0America Mineiro18 September 2026
What these results say
- São Bernardo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vila Nova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Vila Nova kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Vila Nova had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 46 |
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 61 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vila Nova
Chance to win the league · 25% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
- 6 July 2026Vila Nova 2–1 São BernardoSerie B
Leading scorers: São Bernardo and Vila Nova
São Bernardo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 46 league goals as a side.
Vila Nova
GoalsAssists
- Janderson88
- André Luís82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
São Bernardo carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.48 for Vila Nova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for São Bernardo and 1.24 for Vila Nova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
São Bernardo rate 0.69 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vila Nova rate 0.65 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vila Nova, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives São Bernardo a 0% chance of the title and Vila Nova 25.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives São Bernardo the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for São Bernardo against 1.24 for Vila Nova. São Bernardo's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.36 for Vila Nova.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
São Bernardo at home · Vila Nova away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: São Bernardo 33, Vila Nova 33.
São Bernardo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Vila Nova have let in 10 there.
Vila Nova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); São Bernardo have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
São Bernardo
- at Cuiaba1 Nov · Serie Bwin 30%
- at Avai7 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
- vs Athletic Club MG14 Nov · Serie Bwin 52%
Vila Nova
- vs Juventude31 Oct · Serie Bwin 40%
- vs Criciuma6 Nov · Serie Bwin 46%
- at Fortaleza EC14 Nov · Serie Bwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.