Vila Nova
vs
Criciuma
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Vila Nova 1–0 Criciuma
The model makes it 45% Vila Nova, 29% draw, 26% Criciuma — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vila Nova 1.41, Criciuma 0.92.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Vila Nova's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie B matches and Criciuma's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Vila Nova are top on 62 points from 34 games; Criciuma are 5th on 59 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Novorizontino.
- Criciuma have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to São Bernardo.
- Last 6 meetings: Criciuma 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Criciuma 2–0 Vila Nova.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vila Nova vs Criciuma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vila Nova at 45% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vila Nova vs Criciuma
Vila Nova
Serie B
- D2-2Novorizontino18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Nautico Recife11 October 2026
- D0-0Cuiaba7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botafogo SP3 October 2026
- W2-0Londrina25 September 2026
Criciuma
Serie B
- W1-0away to São Bernardo18 October 2026
- W1-0America Mineiro12 October 2026
- L0-1away to Ceara8 October 2026
- W2-0away to Londrina2 October 2026
- W3-0Avai27 September 2026
What these results say
- Vila Nova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Vila Nova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vila Nova kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Criciuma won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Criciuma scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Criciuma kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 62 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vila Nova vs Criciuma
- 18 July 2026Criciuma 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 3 October 2025Vila Nova 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 9 June 2025Criciuma 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 23 August 2023Criciuma 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 12 May 2023Vila Nova 0–0 CriciumaSerie B
- 4 October 2022Vila Nova 1–0 CriciumaSerie B
Leading scorers: Vila Nova and Criciuma
Vila Nova
GoalsAssists
- André Luís92
- Janderson88
Criciuma
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vila Nova carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.43 for Criciuma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Vila Nova and 0.92 for Criciuma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vila Nova rate 0.67 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Criciuma rate 0.54 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vila Nova a 22% chance of the title and Criciuma 3.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vila Nova the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Vila Nova against 0.92 for Criciuma. Vila Nova's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.29 for Criciuma.
How the model reaches 45% for Vila Nova to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vila Nova to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Vila Nova's ratings take away 19 points and Criciuma's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Vila Nova's ratings25%−19
- Criciuma's ratings45%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vila Nova at home · Criciuma away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Vila Nova 34, Criciuma 34.
Vila Nova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (14 goals); Criciuma have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Vila Nova
- at Fortaleza EC14 Nov · Serie Bwin 27%
Criciuma
- vs Novorizontino14 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.