Norwich
vs
QPR
Championship prediction
Our model says: Norwich 2–1 QPR
The model makes it 51% Norwich, 24% draw, 25% QPR — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Norwich 1.98, QPR 1.23.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Norwich's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and QPR's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Norwich are 12th on 21 points from 15 games; QPR are 8th on 24 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Norwich are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Bristol City.
- QPR have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Lincoln.
- Last 6 meetings: Norwich 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 January 2026, ended QPR 1–2 Norwich.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Norwich vs QPR
Has the model earned this number?
Norwich at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Norwich vs QPR
Norwich
Championship
- W5-0away to Bristol City7 November 2026
- W4-0away to Derby3 November 2026
- W3-2Watford31 October 2026
- W3-1away to Charlton24 October 2026
- L0-1Portsmouth17 October 2026
QPR
Championship
- W2-1Lincoln7 November 2026
- D1-1Burnley3 November 2026
- L1-4away to Southampton31 October 2026
- W5-0Swansea24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026
What these results say
- Norwich won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Norwich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Norwich had three goals or more.
- QPR scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for QPR had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 21 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Norwich
Chance to finish in the top two · 11% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Norwich vs QPR
Norwich and QPR have met 6 times in the records we hold, Norwich has won 3 of them to QPR's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Norwich won the last one 2–1 on 1 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 |
| QPR | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Jan 2026
ChampionshipQPR 1–2 Norwich - 29 Nov 2025
ChampionshipNorwich 3–1 QPR - 29 Dec 2024
ChampionshipNorwich 1–1 QPR - 7 Dec 2024
ChampionshipQPR 3–0 Norwich - 10 Feb 2024
ChampionshipQPR 2–2 Norwich - 25 Nov 2023
ChampionshipNorwich 1–0 QPR
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Norwich's attack rates 28% above QPR's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Norwich and QPR
Norwich
GoalsAssists
- M. Touré50
QPR
GoalsAssists
- R. Kone51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour QPR (8th, with Norwich 12th), while our numbers lean to Norwich. Norwich rate 0.97 in attack and 1.35 in defence, QPR 0.76 and 1.34 (lower is better in defence), so Norwich have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Norwich a 3.6% chance of the title and QPR 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Norwich the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Norwich against 1.23 for QPR. Norwich's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.34 for QPR.
How the model reaches 51% for Norwich to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Norwich to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Norwich's ratings add 4 points and QPR's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+2
- Norwich's ratings48%+4
- QPR's ratings51%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Norwich at home · QPR away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NorwichQPR
Norwich are 12th after 15 Championship matches (between 9th and 23rd so far); QPR are 8th after 15 (between 1st and 11th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Norwich 15, QPR 15.
Norwich score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); QPR have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Norwich
- at Preston28 Nov · Championshipwin 51%
- vs Wrexham5 Dec · Championshipwin 51%
- at Blackburn8 Dec · Championshipwin 40%
- at Lincoln13 Dec · Championshipwin 45%
QPR
- vs Sheffield Utd28 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
- at Stoke City5 Dec · Championshipwin 29%
- vs Wolves8 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Watford12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.