FC Gomel
vs
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Gomel 2–0 Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
The model makes it 57% FC Gomel, 24% draw, 19% Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: FC Gomel 2.07, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0.98.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
Edge to FC Gomel: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FC Gomel's rating is built from 55 Belarusian Premier League matches and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Gomel are 7th on 40 points from 25 games; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk are 12th on 23 points from 25 games — Premier League.
- FC Gomel have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Dinamo Brest.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Dinamo Minsk.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 June 2026, ended Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–1 FC Gomel.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Gomel at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
FC Gomel
Premier League
- D2-2away to Dinamo Brest17 October 2026
- L1-5ML Vitebsk11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Baranovichi20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Isloch Minsk R.13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Torpedo Zhodino5 September 2026
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
Premier League
- L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 October 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026
- L1-5away to ML Vitebsk18 September 2026
- D0-0Baranovichi12 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Isloch Minsk R.7 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Gomel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Gomel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Gomel had three goals or more.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Gomel | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 40 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 44 | -20 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- 26 June 2026Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–1 FC GomelPremier League
- 28 February 2026FC Gomel 4–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskFriendlies Clubs
- 2 November 2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–0 FC GomelPremier League
- 13 June 2025FC Gomel 0–2 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
- 30 November 2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1–0 FC GomelPremier League
- 6 July 2024FC Gomel 5–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
The two sides
FC Gomel carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.04 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for FC Gomel and 0.98 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Gomel rate 0.55 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk rate 0.46 and 2.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Gomel the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for FC Gomel against 0.98 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk. FC Gomel's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.31 for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.
How the model reaches 57% for FC Gomel to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Gomel to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FC Gomel's ratings take away 27 points and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's ratings add 40 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- FC Gomel's ratings17%−27
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's ratings57%+40
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Gomel at home · Arsenal Dzerzhinsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Gomel 25, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 25.
FC Gomel score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have let in 8 there.
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); FC Gomel have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
FC Gomel
- vs Bate Borisov21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- at Neman28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- vs Neman21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at FC Vitebsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.