Semi-finals · 21 November 2026, 12:00 UTC

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC Allsvenskan prediction

Jamtkraft Arena, Ostersund

Our model says: Ostersunds FK 0–1 Varbergs BoIS FC

The model makes it 33% Ostersunds FK, 29% draw, 38% Varbergs BoIS FC — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Ostersunds FK 1.21, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.35.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Edge to Varbergs BoIS FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Ostersunds FK's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Varbergs BoIS FC's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.

Key facts

  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended Ostersunds FK 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FC.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC

52%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ostersunds FK win Draw Varbergs BoIS FC win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 1–29%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Ostersunds FK first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Varbergs BoIS FC at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Head-to-head: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC

  • 10 October 2026Ostersunds FK 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FCSuperettan
  • 6 April 2026Varbergs BoIS FC 1–2 Ostersunds FKSuperettan
  • 24 August 2025Varbergs BoIS FC 1–1 Ostersunds FKSuperettan
  • 11 May 2025Ostersunds FK 0–1 Varbergs BoIS FCSuperettan
  • 27 July 2024Ostersunds FK 2–1 Varbergs BoIS FCSuperettan
  • 13 April 2024Varbergs BoIS FC 2–0 Ostersunds FKSuperettan
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Ostersunds FK Varbergs BoIS FC
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61
1.61 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.53
1.21 Model expected goals (this match) 1.35

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Varbergs BoIS FC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Ostersunds FK against 1.35 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Ostersunds FK's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.53 for Varbergs BoIS FC.

How the model reaches 38% for Varbergs BoIS FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Varbergs BoIS FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Ostersunds FK's ratings add 3 points and Varbergs BoIS FC's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage32%−5
  3. Ostersunds FK's ratings35%+3
  4. Varbergs BoIS FC's ratings38%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Ostersunds FK

  • at Varbergs BoIS FC28 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%

Varbergs BoIS FC

  • vs Ostersunds FK28 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 47%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.