Regular Season - 13 · 20 November 2026, 12:00 UTC

ZOB Ahan vs Shams Azar Qazvin Persian Gulf Pro League prediction

Foolad Shahr Stadium, Isfahan

Our model says: ZOB Ahan 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin

The model makes it 41% ZOB Ahan, 32% draw, 27% Shams Azar Qazvin — fair odds of 2.44, 3.13 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: ZOB Ahan 1.15, Shams Azar Qazvin 0.83.

Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. ZOB Ahan's rating is built from 33 Persian Gulf Pro League matches and Shams Azar Qazvin's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • ZOB Ahan are 14th on 10 points from 12 games; Shams Azar Qazvin are 17th on 7 points from 11 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
  • ZOB Ahan have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Gol Gohar.
  • Shams Azar Qazvin have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sanat Naft.
  • Last 5 meetings: ZOB Ahan 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 December 2025, ended ZOB Ahan 0–0 Shams Azar Qazvin.

More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions

All Persian Gulf Pro League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: ZOB Ahan vs Shams Azar Qazvin

39%
Both teams to score
32%
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

ZOB Ahan win Draw Shams Azar Qazvin win
  1. 1–015%
  2. 0–015%
  3. 1–114%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read ZOB Ahan first; the other scorelines share the remaining 23%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

ZOB Ahan at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into ZOB Ahan vs Shams Azar Qazvin

ZOB Ahan

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • D0-0away to Gol Gohar8 November 2026
  • D0-0Esteghlal Khuzestan30 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Aluminium Arak23 October 2026
  • L1-2Chadormalu SC18 October 2026
  • L1-2Sepahan FC13 October 2026

Shams Azar Qazvin

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L0-1Sanat Naft5 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Esteghlal Khuzestan25 October 2026
  • D0-0Sepahan FC18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Paykan10 October 2026
  • L2-3Gol Gohar10 September 2026

What these results say

  • ZOB Ahan did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Shams Azar Qazvin did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Shams Azar Qazvin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Shams Azar Qazvin had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14ZOB Ahan12174610-410
17Shams Azar Qazvin11146713-67

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

ZOB Ahan

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 52% today

Win 32%
Draw 61%
Defeat 75%

Shams Azar Qazvin

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 70% today

Win 47%
Draw 70%
Defeat 84%

From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: ZOB Ahan vs Shams Azar Qazvin

  • 17 December 2025ZOB Ahan 0–0 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 11 April 2025Shams Azar Qazvin 1–1 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 1 December 2024ZOB Ahan 3–0 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 6 April 2024ZOB Ahan 0–2 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 5 October 2023Shams Azar Qazvin 1–2 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

ZOB Ahan Shams Azar Qazvin
0.42 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
1.43 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.68
1.15 Model expected goals (this match) 0.83

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ZOB Ahan the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for ZOB Ahan against 0.83 for Shams Azar Qazvin. ZOB Ahan's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.68 for Shams Azar Qazvin.

How the model reaches 41% for ZOB Ahan to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ZOB Ahan to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, ZOB Ahan's ratings change nothing and Shams Azar Qazvin's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level40%−4
  4. ZOB Ahan's ratings40%±0
  5. Shams Azar Qazvin's ratings41%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ZOB AhanShams Azar Qazvin
12Matches11
1W 7D 4LRecord1W 4D 6L
6 0.5 per gameGoals scored7 0.6 per game
10 0.8 per gameGoals conceded13 1.2 per game
6 of 12Clean sheets3 of 11
6 of 12Failed to score6 of 11
–Penalties scored2 of 2
12 1.0 per gameYellow cards11 1.0 per game
2Red cards0

ZOB Ahan at home · Shams Azar Qazvin away

6Played5
1W 3D 2LRecord1W 2D 2L
4–5Goals for – against4–5
3 of 6Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: ZOB Ahan 12, Shams Azar Qazvin 11.

ZOB Ahan scored 011113
Shams Azar Qazvin conceded 223114

ZOB Ahan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Shams Azar Qazvin have let in 4 there.

Shams Azar Qazvin scored 013102
ZOB Ahan conceded 111133

Shams Azar Qazvin score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); ZOB Ahan have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

ZOB Ahan

  • at Tractor Sazi28 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 11%
  • vs Esteghlal FC3 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 24%
  • at Sanat Naft19 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 31%
  • vs Kheybar Khorramabad24 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 36%

Shams Azar Qazvin

  • vs Kheybar Khorramabad27 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 36%
  • at Malavan5 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 31%
  • at Esteghlal FC12 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 13%
  • vs Mes Shahr-e Babak17 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 57%
  • at Fajr Sepasi24 Dec · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 22%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.