Mes Shahr-e Babak
vs
Paykan
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Mes Shahr-e Babak 1–0 Paykan
The model makes it 37% Mes Shahr-e Babak, 28% draw, 35% Paykan — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mes Shahr-e Babak 1.36, Paykan 1.28.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Mes Shahr-e Babak and Paykan are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Mes Shahr-e Babak are bottom on 5 points from 8 games; Paykan are 9th on 9 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Foolad FC.
- Paykan have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Shams Azar Qazvin.
- Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 11 April 2025, ended Mes Shahr-e Babak 1–1 Paykan.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Paykan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mes Shahr-e Babak at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Paykan
Mes Shahr-e Babak
- L1-2away to Foolad FC8 October 2026
- D1-1Nassaji Mazandaran13 September 2026
- L1-2Malavan7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fajr Sepasi3 September 2026
- D0-0Sanat Naft29 August 2026
Paykan
- D1-1Shams Azar Qazvin10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Esteghlal FC10 September 2026
- W2-0Sanat Naft6 September 2026
- L0-1away to ZOB Ahan2 September 2026
- D0-0Esteghlal Khuzestan28 August 2026
What these results say
- Mes Shahr-e Babak did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mes Shahr-e Babak conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Paykan had two goals or fewer.
- Paykan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 9 | Paykan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mes Shahr-e Babak
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 75% today
Paykan
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 3% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Paykan
- 11 April 2025Mes Shahr-e Babak 1–1 PaykanAzadegan League
- 16 November 2024Paykan 1–1 Mes Shahr-e BabakAzadegan League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mes Shahr-e Babak carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.31 for Paykan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Mes Shahr-e Babak and 1.28 for Paykan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mes Shahr-e Babak rate 0.55 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paykan rate 0.51 and 1.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Paykan, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mes Shahr-e Babak the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Mes Shahr-e Babak against 1.28 for Paykan. Mes Shahr-e Babak's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.52 for Paykan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mes Shahr-e Babak at home · Paykan away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Mes Shahr-e Babak 8, Paykan 8.
Mes Shahr-e Babak score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Paykan have let in 0 there.
Paykan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Mes Shahr-e Babak have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Mes Shahr-e Babak
- at Aluminium Arak6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 20%
Paykan
- vs Nassaji Mazandaran7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.