Sporting Cristal
vs
Cienciano
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Sporting Cristal 2–1 Cienciano
The model makes it 52% Sporting Cristal, 24% draw, 24% Cienciano — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Sporting Cristal 2.15, Cienciano 1.30.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Sporting Cristal's rating is built from 71 Primera División (Peru) matches and Cienciano's from 66, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sporting Cristal are 7th on 47 points from 31 games; Cienciano are 6th on 50 points from 31 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Sporting Cristal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Alianza Lima.
- Cienciano have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Atletico Grau.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Cienciano 3–2 Sporting Cristal.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting Cristal at 52%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano
Sporting Cristal
Primera División
- W3-2Alianza Lima29 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cusco24 October 2026
- W4-2Comerciantes Unidos18 October 2026
- W1-0away to UTC Cajamarca11 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Grau19 September 2026
Cienciano
Primera División
- W3-0Atletico Grau29 October 2026
- L1-3away to Comerciantes Unidos25 October 2026
- W1-0UTC Cajamarca18 October 2026
- W2-0away to UCV Moquegua8 October 2026
- D1-1Club Deportivo Los Chankas30 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Cristal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Cristal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Cristal conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cienciano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sporting Cristal | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 57 | 47 | +10 | 47 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 53 | 43 | +10 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano
- 31 May 2026Cienciano 3–2 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 7 November 2025Sporting Cristal 2–1 CiencianoPrimera División
- 5 July 2025Cienciano 1–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 27 July 2024Sporting Cristal 5–1 CiencianoPrimera División
- 10 February 2024Cienciano 2–2 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 23 October 2023Cienciano 1–0 Sporting CristalPrimera División
Leading scorers: Sporting Cristal and Cienciano
Sporting Cristal
GoalsAssists
- H. Barcos123
- L. Iberico100
Cienciano
GoalsAssists
- C. Garcés184
- A. Hohberg125
- N. Bandiera81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sporting Cristal carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.38 for Cienciano.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.15 goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.30 for Cienciano.
Sporting Cristal rate 0.79 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cienciano rate 0.65 and 1.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cienciano, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Cristal the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Sporting Cristal against 1.30 for Cienciano. Sporting Cristal's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.67 for Cienciano.
How the model reaches 52% for Sporting Cristal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sporting Cristal to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Sporting Cristal's ratings add 4 points and Cienciano's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Sporting Cristal's ratings50%+4
- Cienciano's ratings52%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sporting Cristal at home · Cienciano away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Sporting Cristal 31, Cienciano 31.
Sporting Cristal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Cienciano have let in 11 there.
Cienciano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Sporting Cristal have let in 13 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.