Club Queretaro
vs
Monterrey
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Club Queretaro 2–1 Monterrey
The model makes it 37% Club Queretaro, 27% draw, 36% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Club Queretaro 1.45, Monterrey 1.40.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
A tight game: Club Queretaro and Monterrey are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Club Queretaro's rating is built from 48 Liga MX matches and Monterrey's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 805 matches.
Key facts
- Club Queretaro are 10th on 20 points from 14 games; Monterrey are 8th on 20 points from 13 games — Liga MX.
- Club Queretaro are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to FC Juarez.
- Monterrey have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Guadalajara Chivas.
- Last 6 meetings: Monterrey 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 March 2026, ended Monterrey 4–0 Club Queretaro.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club Queretaro vs Monterrey
Has the model earned this number?
Club Queretaro at 37%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Monterrey
Club Queretaro
Liga MX
- L1-3away to FC Juarez31 October 2026
- L1-3Cruz Azul26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico San Luis21 October 2026
- L0-5away to Santos Laguna17 October 2026
- W2-0Atlante FC10 October 2026
Monterrey
Liga MX
- L0-1Guadalajara Chivas25 October 2026
- W4-1away to Puebla22 October 2026
- W2-1CF Pachuca19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Club America11 October 2026
- L2-4away to Atlante FC26 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Queretaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monterrey conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monterrey scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Monterrey.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Monterrey
- 5 March 2026Monterrey 4–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 14 September 2025Club Queretaro 0–1 MonterreyLiga MX
- 16 February 2025Club Queretaro 2–4 MonterreyLiga MX
- 21 July 2024Monterrey 2–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 25 January 2024Monterrey 1–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 11 November 2023Club Queretaro 0–0 MonterreyLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Monterrey
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- S. Homenchenko52
- A. Ávila50
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos63
- D. Rossi53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Club Queretaro carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.62 for Monterrey.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Club Queretaro and 1.40 for Monterrey.
Club Queretaro rate 0.65 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monterrey rate 0.82 and 1.29.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Monterrey, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Queretaro a 0% chance of the title and Monterrey 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Club Queretaro v Monterrey has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Club Queretaro's chance of winning, down 10 points.
- Club Queretaro win37%▼ −10
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Monterrey win36%▲ +9
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Queretaro the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Club Queretaro against 1.40 for Monterrey. Club Queretaro's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.29 for Monterrey.
How the model reaches 37% for Club Queretaro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Club Queretaro to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Club Queretaro's ratings take away 4 points and Monterrey's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Both sides at this match's level44%−1
- Club Queretaro's ratings40%−4
- Monterrey's ratings37%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Club Queretaro at home · Monterrey away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Club QueretaroMonterrey
Club Queretaro are 10th after 14 Liga MX matches (between 3rd and 14th so far); Monterrey are 8th after 13 (between 1st and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Club Queretaro 14, Monterrey 13.
Club Queretaro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Monterrey have let in 5 there.
Monterrey score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Club Queretaro have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Club Queretaro
- vs Necaxa23 Nov · Liga MXwin 50%
Monterrey
- at Pumas UNAM22 Nov · Liga MXwin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.