Aluminij
vs
Radomlje
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Aluminij 2–1 Radomlje
The model makes it 51% Aluminij, 25% draw, 24% Radomlje — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Aluminij 1.97, Radomlje 1.21.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aluminij are 7th on 13 points from 12 games; Radomlje are bottom on 7 points from 11 games — 1. SNL.
- Aluminij are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Olimpija Ljubljana.
- Radomlje have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Bravo.
- Last 6 meetings: Aluminij 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Radomlje 1–3 Aluminij.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aluminij vs Radomlje
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aluminij at 51% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aluminij vs Radomlje
Aluminij
- L0-1Olimpija Ljubljana16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Celje10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Maribor19 September 2026
- W6-1away to Mura13 September 2026
- D0-0Bravo5 September 2026
Radomlje
- D2-2away to Bravo17 October 2026
- D3-3Koper10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Brinje-Grosuplje20 September 2026
- L0-3Maribor13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Nafta4 September 2026
What these results say
- Aluminij failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aluminij conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radomlje did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Radomlje conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Radomlje had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aluminij | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aluminij
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
Radomlje
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 87% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Aluminij vs Radomlje
- 16 August 2026Radomlje 1–3 Aluminij1. SNL
- 3 April 2026Aluminij 1–2 Radomlje1. SNL
- 30 January 2026Radomlje 2–1 Aluminij1. SNL
- 26 September 2025Aluminij 2–1 Radomlje1. SNL
- 18 July 2025Radomlje 1–2 Aluminij1. SNL
- 15 April 2024Aluminij 1–1 Radomlje1. SNL
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aluminij carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.24 for Radomlje. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Aluminij and 1.21 for Radomlje. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aluminij rate 0.55 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radomlje rate 0.63 and 2.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aluminij a 0.2% chance of the title and Radomlje 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aluminij the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Aluminij against 1.21 for Radomlje. Aluminij's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/2.2 for Radomlje.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aluminij at home · Radomlje away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Aluminij 12, Radomlje 11.
Radomlje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Aluminij have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aluminij
- at Brinje-Grosuplje7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 32%
- vs Koper21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 33%
- at Bravo28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 24%
- vs Mura5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 52%
Radomlje
- vs Celje7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 25%
- at Olimpija Ljubljana21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 17%
- vs Nafta28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.