Maribor
vs
Celje
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Maribor 2–1 Celje
The model makes it 40% Maribor, 29% draw, 31% Celje — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Maribor 1.58, Celje 1.21.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Maribor are top on 20 points from 10 games; Celje are 7th on 12 points from 9 games — 1. SNL.
- Maribor are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Aluminij.
- Celje are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Mura.
- Last 6 meetings: Celje 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Celje 1–1 Maribor.
All Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Maribor vs Celje
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maribor at 40% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maribor vs Celje
Maribor
- D2-2Aluminij19 September 2026
- W3-0away to Radomlje13 September 2026
- D1-1Mura6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Nafta30 August 2026
- W3-1Bravo23 August 2026
Celje
- D0-0away to Mura20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bravo12 September 2026
- L0-1Koper6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aluminij2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Brinje-Grosuplje30 August 2026
What these results say
- Maribor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Maribor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maribor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celje failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 20 |
| 7 | Celje | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Maribor vs Celje
- 1 August 2026Celje 1–1 Maribor1. SNL
- 4 April 2026Celje 1–0 Maribor1. SNL
- 1 February 2026Maribor 3–3 Celje1. SNL
- 27 September 2025Celje 3–0 Maribor1. SNL
- 20 July 2025Maribor 1–2 Celje1. SNL
- 7 May 2025Maribor 1–1 Celje1. SNL
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Maribor carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.6 for Celje. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Maribor and 1.21 for Celje. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maribor rate 0.74 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celje rate 0.80 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maribor a 42.5% chance of the title and Celje 19.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maribor the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Maribor against 1.21 for Celje. Maribor's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.31 for Celje.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maribor at home · Celje away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Maribor 10, Celje 9.
Celje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Maribor have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Maribor
- at Koper28 Oct · 1. SNLwin 31%
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana31 Oct · 1. SNLwin 43%
- at Bravo7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 34%
- vs Nafta21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 50%
Celje
- vs Red Bull Salzburg22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at Olimpija Ljubljana28 Oct · 1. SNLwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.