Maribor
vs
Olimpija Ljubljana
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Maribor 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana
The model makes it 48% Maribor, 28% draw, 24% Olimpija Ljubljana — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Maribor 1.55, Olimpija Ljubljana 0.95.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Maribor are top on 23 points from 11 games; Olimpija Ljubljana are 4th on 18 points from 12 games — 1. SNL.
- Maribor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Brinje-Grosuplje.
- Olimpija Ljubljana have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Aluminij.
- Last 6 meetings: Olimpija Ljubljana 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Olimpija Ljubljana 1–1 Maribor.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maribor at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana
Maribor
- W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 October 2026
- D2-2Aluminij19 September 2026
- W3-0away to Radomlje13 September 2026
- D1-1Mura6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Nafta30 August 2026
Olimpija Ljubljana
- W1-0away to Aluminij16 October 2026
- D3-3Mura10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bravo20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Koper12 September 2026
- W3-0Brinje-Grosuplje5 September 2026
What these results say
- Maribor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Maribor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maribor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olimpija Ljubljana scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Olimpija Ljubljana had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Maribor
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 50% today
Olimpija Ljubljana
Chance to finish in the top four · 57% today
From our 1. SNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Maribor vs Olimpija Ljubljana
- 15 August 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 1–1 Maribor1. SNL
- 9 May 2026Maribor 0–3 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 8 March 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 0–0 Maribor1. SNL
- 23 November 2025Maribor 1–1 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 31 August 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Maribor1. SNL
- 3 May 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–2 Maribor1. SNL
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Maribor carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.5 for Olimpija Ljubljana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Maribor and 0.95 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maribor rate 0.75 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olimpija Ljubljana rate 0.62 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maribor a 50.2% chance of the title and Olimpija Ljubljana 6.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maribor the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Maribor against 0.95 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Maribor's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.27 for Olimpija Ljubljana.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Maribor at home · Olimpija Ljubljana away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Maribor 11, Olimpija Ljubljana 12.
Olimpija Ljubljana score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Maribor have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Maribor
- at Bravo7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 36%
- vs Nafta21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 54%
- at Mura28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 50%
Olimpija Ljubljana
- at Nafta7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 33%
- vs Radomlje21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 60%
- at Brinje-Grosuplje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 40%
- vs Koper5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.