Chico
vs
Deportivo Pasto
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Chico 0–1 Deportivo Pasto
The model makes it 33% Chico, 31% draw, 36% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Chico 1.11, Deportivo Pasto 1.20.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Chico and Deportivo Pasto are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chico vs Deportivo Pasto
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pasto at 36% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chico vs Deportivo Pasto
Chico
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
- W2-1Independiente Medellin12 September 2026
- W2-0Once Caldas5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Águilas Doradas30 August 2026
Deportivo Pasto
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
- W1-0away to America de Cali15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cucuta5 September 2026
- L1-2Deportivo Pereira31 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional de Bogota28 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Chico | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pasto | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chico vs Deportivo Pasto
- 18 March 2026Deportivo Pasto 2–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 5 September 2025Deportivo Pasto 2–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 26 July 2025Chico 2–2 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 22 March 2025Chico 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 12 February 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 22 September 2024Chico 1–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
The two sides
Chico carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.39 for Deportivo Pasto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Chico and 1.20 for Deportivo Pasto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chico rate 0.48 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Pasto rate 0.63 and 1.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Pasto the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Chico against 1.2 for Deportivo Pasto. Chico's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.59 for Deportivo Pasto.