25 September 2026, 23:10 UTC

Chico vs Deportivo Pasto Primera A prediction & result

Estadio La Independencia, Tunja
Referee: Javier Alonso Villa Zapata
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Chico 3-0 Deportivo Pasto.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Chico, 31% draw, 36% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Pasto at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chico99%Draw1%Deportivo Pasto0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

55'
🔁Derik Osedeout: Jonathan Perlaza
🔁Jacobo Pimentelout: Yesus Cabrera
59'
⚽Yesus Cabreraassist: S. Mera
68'
⚽E. Sarria
70'
72'
🔁Diego Gabriel Chavezout: Yeiler Goez
72'
🔁Franco Leysout: Matias Pisano
E. Sarria
73'
🔁E. Sarriaout: Delio Ramírez
76'
84'
🔁Santiago Cordobaout: Eder Daniel Gómez De La Rosa
84'
🔁Joider Micoltaout: Yeison Tolosa
⚽A. Mayaassist: Juan Diaz
86'
🔁S. Meraout: Jeronimo Pimentel Betancourt
90'
🔁A. Mayaout: Felipe Cifuentes
90'

Match stats — Chico vs Deportivo Pasto

44%Possession56%
7Shots14
5On target3
0Corners4

Line-ups

Chico 4-3-3
  • 1D. AgudeloG
  • 15S. NavarroD
  • 5J. AlomíaD
  • 4J. MenaD
  • 14C. BlancoD
  • 8S. SalazarM
  • 6J. DíazM
  • 21J. PimentelM
  • 17E. SarriaF
  • 22Alejandro MayaF
  • 16S. MeraF
Substitutes
  • 20Sebastián ViverosM
  • 7F. CifuentesF
  • 10Y. CabreraM
  • 19J. Pimentel Betancourt
  • 2D. PolancoD
  • 11D. RamírezM
  • 23J. PeñalozaM
  • 12B. ZapataG
  • 29Luis CarabalíF
Coach: J. Gómez
Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2
  • 12G. BangueraG
  • 33M. GaravitoD
  • 21Derik OsedeD
  • 2F. TorijanoD
  • 3J. OssaD
  • 18J. MicoltaM
  • 25F. LeysM
  • 8E. SerjeM
  • 27H. GoyesM
  • 10D. ChávezF
  • 29S. CórdobaF
Substitutes
  • 13Luis Felipe Marquínez ValverdeG
  • 26H. ValenciaD
  • 7J. PerlazaM
  • 32M. PisanoM
  • 15H. MancillaM
  • 42Eder Daniel Gómez De La RosaF
  • 23Y. GóezM
  • 5N. GilD
  • 22Y. TolosaF
Coach: Jonathan Risueño

Form going into Chico vs Deportivo Pasto

Chico

No earlier matches on record this season.

Deportivo Pasto

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Chico185491529-1419
18Deportivo Pasto1843111329-1615

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chico vs Deportivo Pasto

  • 18 March 2026Deportivo Pasto 2–0 ChicoPrimera A
  • 5 September 2025Deportivo Pasto 2–0 ChicoPrimera A
  • 26 July 2025Chico 2–2 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 22 March 2025Chico 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
  • 12 February 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–0 ChicoPrimera A

The result against the call

Chico beat Deportivo Pasto 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo Pasto at 36% and given a win for Chico 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Yesus Cabrera 68' for Chico, E. Sarria 70' for Chico, A. Maya 86' for Chico.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.