Regular Season - 16 · 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc Czech Liga prediction

Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav

Our model says: Mlada Boleslav 2–1 Sigma Olomouc

The model makes it 44% Mlada Boleslav, 27% draw, 29% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.62, Sigma Olomouc 1.21.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Mlada Boleslav's rating is built from 49 Czech Liga matches and Sigma Olomouc's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.

Key facts

Mlada Boleslav are 3rd on 25 points from 14 games; Sigma Olomouc are 5th on 24 points from 14 games — Czech Liga.
Mlada Boleslav are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to FK Jablonec.
Sigma Olomouc have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Hradec Králové.
Last 6 meetings: Sigma Olomouc 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Sigma Olomouc 2–2 Mlada Boleslav.

More Czech Liga predictions

All Czech Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc

57%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Mlada Boleslav win Draw Sigma Olomouc win

1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
0–17%
0–06%

Scores read Mlada Boleslav first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Mlada Boleslav at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc

Mlada Boleslav

Czech Liga

D0-0away to FK Jablonec8 November 2026
W3-1Hradec Králové1 November 2026
D1-1away to Slavia Praha24 October 2026
W1-0Teplice17 October 2026
L0-1away to Bohemians 190514 October 2026

Sigma Olomouc

Czech Liga

L0-5away to Hradec Králové7 November 2026
W3-0Zbrojovka Brno31 October 2026
D1-1away to Zlin24 October 2026
W1-0Slovan Liberec17 October 2026
D1-1away to Teplice11 October 2026

What these results say

4 of these 5 matches for Mlada Boleslav had two goals or fewer.
Sigma Olomouc scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Mlada Boleslav	14	7	4	3	22	15	+7	25
5	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	22	20	+2	24

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Sigma Olomouc

Chance to finish in the top ten · 91% today

Win 95%

Draw 93%

Defeat 88%

From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Sigma Olomouc

2 August 2026Sigma Olomouc 2–2 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
4 April 2026Sigma Olomouc 2–4 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
2 November 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–4 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
15 December 2024Mlada Boleslav 1–3 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
18 August 2024Sigma Olomouc 3–2 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
16 March 2024Mlada Boleslav 2–1 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Sigma Olomouc

Mlada Boleslav

GoalsAssists

M. Šubert71
J. Klíma41

Sigma Olomouc

GoalsAssists

V. Sejk63
A. Ghali42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mlada Boleslav a 0.2% chance of the title and Sigma Olomouc 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Mlada Boleslav Sigma Olomouc

0.83 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.88

1.07 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.29

1.62 Model expected goals (this match) 1.21

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Mlada Boleslav the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav against 1.21 for Sigma Olomouc. Mlada Boleslav's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.29 for Sigma Olomouc.

Mlada Boleslav carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.66 for Sigma Olomouc. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 44% for Mlada Boleslav to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mlada Boleslav to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Mlada Boleslav's ratings add 1 point and Sigma Olomouc's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage41%+5
Mlada Boleslav's ratings42%+1
Sigma Olomouc's ratings44%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Mlada BoleslavModelSigma Olomouc

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

78%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

54%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

31%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

30%

3 of 10 games

57%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Mlada BoleslavSigma Olomouc

14Matches14

7W 4D 3LRecord7W 3D 4L

22 1.6 per gameGoals scored22 1.6 per game

15 1.1 per gameGoals conceded20 1.4 per game

5 of 14Clean sheets3 of 14

4 of 14Failed to score3 of 14

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1

27 1.9 per gameYellow cards17 1.2 per game

0Red cards3

4-2-3-1 11×Usual shape3-4-3 12×

Mlada Boleslav at home · Sigma Olomouc away

6Played8

6W 0D 0LRecord3W 2D 3L

14–2Goals for – against10–14

4 of 6Clean sheets0 of 8

League matches only, Czech Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Mlada BoleslavSigma Olomouc

Mlada Boleslav are 3rd after 14 Czech Liga matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Sigma Olomouc are 5th after 14 (between 2nd and 11th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Czech Liga matches this season: Mlada Boleslav 14, Sigma Olomouc 14.

Mlada Boleslav scored 631345

Sigma Olomouc conceded 110646

Mlada Boleslav score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Sigma Olomouc have let in 1 there.

Sigma Olomouc scored 436434

Mlada Boleslav conceded 331314

Sigma Olomouc score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Mlada Boleslav have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Mlada Boleslav

at Sparta Praha5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 20%
vs Pardubice12 Dec · Czech Ligawin 43%
at Slovácko30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 46%
vs Bohemians 19056 Feb · Czech Ligawin 43%

Sigma Olomouc

vs Artis5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 57%
vs Slovácko13 Dec · Czech Ligawin 53%
at Pardubice30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 32%
vs Baník Ostrava6 Feb · Czech Ligawin 51%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.