Zbrojovka Brno
vs
Plzen
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Zbrojovka Brno 1–2 Plzen
The model makes it 22% Zbrojovka Brno, 23% draw, 55% Plzen — fair odds of 4.55, 4.35 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Zbrojovka Brno 1.17, Plzen 2.18.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Plzen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Zbrojovka Brno's rating is built from 14 Czech Liga matches and Plzen's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.
Key facts
- Zbrojovka Brno are 10th on 20 points from 14 games; Plzen are 8th on 20 points from 14 games — Czech Liga.
- Zbrojovka Brno are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Baník Ostrava.
- Plzen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sparta Praha.
- Last 5 meetings: Plzen 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Plzen 1–1 Zbrojovka Brno.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zbrojovka Brno vs Plzen
Has the model earned this number?
Plzen at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zbrojovka Brno vs Plzen
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga
- L1-3Baník Ostrava7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Sigma Olomouc31 October 2026
- D2-2Bohemians 190524 October 2026
- W2-1away to Slovácko18 October 2026
- L0-1FK Jablonec10 October 2026
Plzen
Czech Liga
- D1-1Sparta Praha8 November 2026
- W4-0away to Baník Ostrava1 November 2026
- L1-2Pardubice25 October 2026
- W3-2away to FK Jablonec18 October 2026
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav10 October 2026
What these results say
- Zbrojovka Brno conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zbrojovka Brno failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Zbrojovka Brno had three goals or more.
- Plzen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Plzen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Zbrojovka Brno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 20 |
| 8 | Plzen | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zbrojovka Brno vs Plzen
- 1 August 2026Plzen 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 5 February 2023Zbrojovka Brno 1–3 PlzenCzech Liga
- 9 November 2022Plzen 4–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 19 January 2022Plzen 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoFriendlies Clubs
- 27 February 2021Zbrojovka Brno 0–1 PlzenCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Zbrojovka Brno and Plzen
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín50
Plzen
GoalsAssists
- C. Kabongo50
- A. Memić46
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zbrojovka Brno a 0% chance of the title and Plzen 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plzen the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno against 2.18 for Plzen. Zbrojovka Brno's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.18/1.09 for Plzen.
How the model reaches 55% for Plzen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Plzen to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Zbrojovka Brno's ratings add 11 points and Plzen's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Zbrojovka Brno's ratings43%+11
- Plzen's ratings55%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Zbrojovka Brno at home · Plzen away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Zbrojovka BrnoPlzen
Zbrojovka Brno are 10th after 14 Czech Liga matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); Plzen are 8th after 14 (between 8th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Zbrojovka Brno 14, Plzen 14.
Plzen score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Zbrojovka Brno have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zbrojovka Brno
- at Slovan Liberec5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 21%
- at Hradec Králové12 Dec · Czech Ligawin 23%
- vs Teplice30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 34%
- at Zlin6 Feb · Czech Ligawin 38%
Plzen
- vs Teplice6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 57%
- at Bournemouth10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
- at Zlin14 Dec · Czech Ligawin 62%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.