Teplice
vs
Slovan Liberec
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Teplice 0–1 Slovan Liberec
The model makes it 33% Teplice, 31% draw, 36% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Teplice 1.07, Slovan Liberec 1.13.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Teplice and Slovan Liberec are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Teplice's rating is built from 49 Czech Liga matches and Slovan Liberec's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 670 matches.
Key facts
- Teplice are 6th on 21 points from 14 games; Slovan Liberec are 2nd on 26 points from 13 games — Czech Liga.
- Teplice have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Pardubice.
- Slovan Liberec have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Bohemians 1905.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 October 2026, ended Slovan Liberec 1–0 Teplice.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Teplice vs Slovan Liberec
Has the model earned this number?
Slovan Liberec at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Teplice vs Slovan Liberec
Teplice
Czech Liga
- L1-4Pardubice8 November 2026
- W3-1away to Slovácko31 October 2026
- D0-0Artis24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Mlada Boleslav17 October 2026
- D1-1Sigma Olomouc11 October 2026
Slovan Liberec
Czech Liga
- W1-0Bohemians 19057 November 2026
- W2-1away to Pardubice31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sigma Olomouc17 October 2026
- L0-2Slovácko11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026
What these results say
- Teplice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Teplice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Slovan Liberec had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Teplice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Teplice
Chance to finish in the top ten · 78% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Teplice vs Slovan Liberec
- 27 October 2026Slovan Liberec 1–0 TepliceCup
- 1 August 2026Slovan Liberec 0–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 15 March 2026Slovan Liberec 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
- 18 October 2025Teplice 1–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 8 December 2024Slovan Liberec 3–0 TepliceCzech Liga
- 10 August 2024Teplice 2–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Teplice and Slovan Liberec
Teplice
GoalsAssists
- M. Pulkrab43
- John Auta40
Slovan Liberec
GoalsAssists
- L. Mašek40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Teplice a 0% chance of the title and Slovan Liberec 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovan Liberec the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Teplice against 1.13 for Slovan Liberec. Teplice's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/0.87 for Slovan Liberec.
How the model reaches 36% for Slovan Liberec to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slovan Liberec to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Teplice's ratings add 3 points and Slovan Liberec's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Both sides at this match's level31%−1
- Teplice's ratings34%+3
- Slovan Liberec's ratings36%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Teplice at home · Slovan Liberec away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
TepliceSlovan Liberec
Teplice are 6th after 14 Czech Liga matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Slovan Liberec are 2nd after 13 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Teplice 14, Slovan Liberec 13.
Slovan Liberec score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Teplice have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Teplice
- at Plzen6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 20%
- vs Sparta Praha14 Dec · Czech Ligawin 23%
- at Zbrojovka Brno30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 39%
- at FK Jablonec6 Feb · Czech Ligawin 35%
Slovan Liberec
- vs Zbrojovka Brno5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 51%
- at Slavia Praha13 Dec · Czech Ligawin 15%
- vs Zlin30 Jan · Czech Ligawin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.