FC Lugano
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Lugano 2–0 Kauno Žalgiris
The model makes it 74% FC Lugano, 17% draw, 9% Kauno Žalgiris — fair odds of 1.35, 5.88 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: FC Lugano 2.69, Kauno Žalgiris 0.64.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Lugano are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. FC Lugano's rating is built from 48 Swiss Super League matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; Kauno Žalgiris's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- FC Lugano are 8th on 3 points from 1 game; Kauno Žalgiris are bottom on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to FC Luzern.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 74% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 349 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris
FC Lugano
- W3-2FK Crvena Zvezda15 October 2026
Kauno Žalgiris
- L0-4away to Brighton15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Lugano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- K. Behrens61
Kauno Žalgiris
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
FC Lugano carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.37 for Kauno Žalgiris. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.69 goals for FC Lugano and 0.64 for Kauno Žalgiris. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Lugano rate 0.89 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kauno Žalgiris rate 0.66 and 1.75.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.69 expected goals for FC Lugano against 0.64 for Kauno Žalgiris. FC Lugano's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.75 for Kauno Žalgiris.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often FC Lugano's most recent league matches and Kauno Žalgiris's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Lugano
- at FC St. Gallen8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 51%
- vs Grasshoppers21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 78%
Kauno Žalgiris
- vs Riga26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%
- at Egnatia Rrogozhinë10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 35%
- vs SC Freiburg17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.